349
FXUS64 KBMX 160939
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST THU FEB 15 2025
- WINTER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-20. HOWEVER, THE IMPACT WINDOW SHOULD ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE WHILE THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 20S INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WE CURRENTLY REMAIN IN WARNING OPERATIONS WITH SEVERE TSTORMS
ONGOING IN THE SE COUNTIES OF C AL. A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES
THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRIM COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH ON
THE BACKSIDE AS THE STORMS PROGRESS AND THREAT ENDS.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND BACK SEVERAL COUNTIES
BEHIND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. IN ADDITION, SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY JUST W OF BHM. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF C AL
BY 15Z. ALSO BY THIS TIME, WINDS SHOULD HAVE GONE DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL LINGER BEHIND THE RAIN SHIELD AND FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL OFF TO THE NE AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. LOOK FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO C AL AS IT DOES SO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER
THIS MORNING WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO
THE NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. BY MON MORNING, THE SKY SHOULD BE CLEAR
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
08
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 742 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
SEVERAL BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND TO A NEUTRAL TILT.
GREENVILLE MS RECENTLY GUSTED TO 67 MPH. A WEDGE FRONT REMAINS IN
FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S. MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ARE LOCATED CLOSER
TO THE COAST. A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SOME CAPPING WILL
KEEP US DRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE AHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE AS IT REACHES THE
STATE LINE SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM. A FEW EXPERIMENTAL WARN ON
FORECAST MEMBERS INDICATE SOME CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT, SO
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A START TIME OF 10 PM FOR THE THREAT.
CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ROBUST SIGNATURES OF DAMAGING WINDS
DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE VALUES DUE TO A VERY STRONG 65 TO 70
KT 850MB LLJ, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS, AND STRONG
LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS IN ADDITION TO STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR QUICKLY
DEVELOPING QLCS TORNADOES WITH 60 KTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR. THE MOST
FAVORABLE LINE ORIENTATION FOR QLCS TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ANY HINT OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION WITH OUTFLOW SURGES, THOUGH EVEN
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATIONS COULD BE FAVORABLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE 0-3 KM SHEAR. WILL ADDITIONALLY HAVE A TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AND MERGE INTO THE LINE, AND WILL BE
WATCHING CLOSELY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HIGHEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE THE 65 DEW POINTS WILL BE SURGING IN.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY OF GETTING WARNINGS SUCH AS A WEATHER
RADIO THAT WILL WAKE YOU UP, KEEP YOUR PHONES OFF DO NOT DISTURB,
AND CONSIDER GOING TO YOUR SAFE PLACE EVEN FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING.
32/JDAVIS
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
BY THE START OF THE LONG-TERM, THE COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD STILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL HOVERING AT,
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY
BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO WEDNESDAY, AS SW FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS SW FLOW WON'T BE ALL THE STRONG, AND A LOT OF
THE WARM AIR COULD BE SUPPRESSED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE WINTER WEATHER CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES, AS TEMPERATURES HERE WON'T HAVE A CHANCE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THANKFULLY, THE WINDOW FOR ANY
KIND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION LOOKS SMALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 10AM AND NOON. THIS
ALSO MEANS THAT ANY TYPE OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE SHORT LIVED, AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID-40S IN MANY OF THESE
LOCATIONS.
ONCE THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, VERY
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION, AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WORKS IN. LOWS INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS, WITH THEM FALLING INTO THE LOW-20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THIS IS WHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT REBOUND POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER-30S AND
MID-40S, BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER-40S AND MID-50S BY THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD BETWEEN 6Z AND
11Z, WITH GUSTS BRIEFLY UP TO 50KTS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
30-35KTS WITH MEDIUM CHANCES OF LLWS AS WELL. CIGS WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, WITH MVFR LINGERING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MONDAY, WITH
VALUES RANGING IN THE MID 30% IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE
VALUES WILL REBOUND INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ANOTHER 3/4-1 INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID-30S
BY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 53 25 49 26 / 30 0 0 0
ANNISTON 56 26 50 28 / 30 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 27 50 30 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 53 28 51 30 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 55 28 51 31 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 59 28 53 32 / 30 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 59 30 54 32 / 20 0 0 0
TROY 61 30 54 32 / 20 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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