951
FXUS64 KBMX 161238
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST THU FEB 15 2025
- WINTER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-20. HOWEVER, THE IMPACT WINDOW SHOULD ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE WHILE THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 20S INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WE CURRENTLY REMAIN IN WARNING OPERATIONS WITH SEVERE TSTORMS
ONGOING IN THE SE COUNTIES OF C AL. A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES
THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRIM COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH ON
THE BACKSIDE AS THE STORMS PROGRESS AND THREAT ENDS.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND BACK SEVERAL COUNTIES
BEHIND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. IN ADDITION, SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY JUST W OF BHM. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF C AL
BY 15Z. ALSO BY THIS TIME, WINDS SHOULD HAVE GONE DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL LINGER BEHIND THE RAIN SHIELD AND FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL OFF TO THE NE AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. LOOK FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO C AL AS IT DOES SO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER
THIS MORNING WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO
THE NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. BY MON MORNING, THE SKY SHOULD BE CLEAR
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
08
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
BY THE START OF THE LONG-TERM, THE COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD STILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL HOVERING AT,
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY
BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO WEDNESDAY, AS SW FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS SW FLOW WON'T BE ALL THE STRONG, AND A LOT OF
THE WARM AIR COULD BE SUPPRESSED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE WINTER WEATHER CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES, AS TEMPERATURES HERE WON'T HAVE A CHANCE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THANKFULLY, THE WINDOW FOR ANY
KIND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION LOOKS SMALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 10AM AND NOON. THIS
ALSO MEANS THAT ANY TYPE OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE SHORT LIVED, AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID-40S IN MANY OF THESE
LOCATIONS.
ONCE THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, VERY
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION, AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WORKS IN. LOWS INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS, WITH THEM FALLING INTO THE LOW-20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THIS IS WHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT REBOUND POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER-30S AND
MID-40S, BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER-40S AND MID-50S BY THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF C AL. TSRA HAVE MOVED PAST
THE TAF SITES. PRECIP IS GENERALLY DONE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR BETWEEN 22 AND 03Z AS MOISTURE PULLS OUT TO THE NE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY TODAY WITH VALUES SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SW-W INITIALLY
TO NW-N BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
BOTH KTCL AND KASN WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO IT UFN DUE
TO POST STORM COMMS/POWER ISSUES.
08
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MONDAY, WITH
VALUES RANGING IN THE MID 30% IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE
VALUES WILL REBOUND INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ANOTHER 3/4-1 INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID-30S
BY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 53 25 49 26 / 30 0 0 0
ANNISTON 56 26 50 28 / 30 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 27 50 30 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 53 28 51 30 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 55 28 51 31 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 59 28 53 32 / 30 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 59 30 54 32 / 20 0 0 0
TROY 61 30 54 32 / 20 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page