236
FXUS64 KBMX 161702
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1102 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- WINTER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-20. HOWEVER, THE IMPACT WINDOW SHOULD ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE WHILE THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 20S INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. DAMAGE IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THAT MOVED
THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH SEVERAL CONCENTRATED AREAS OF ENHANCED
DAMAGE THAT WILL BE SURVEYED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY DROP OFF AFTER
THE SUN SETS. LOOK FOR GENERALLY 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH TO SEE IF ANY COLD
AIR STRATUS DEVELOP. THIS COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY A
LITTLE "WARMER" ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 20S
VERSUS LOW TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE LESS WINDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
16
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
BY THE START OF THE LONG-TERM, THE COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD STILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL HOVERING AT,
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY
BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO WEDNESDAY, AS SW FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS SW FLOW WON'T BE ALL THE STRONG, AND A LOT OF
THE WARM AIR COULD BE SUPPRESSED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE WINTER WEATHER CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES, AS TEMPERATURES HERE WON'T HAVE A CHANCE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THANKFULLY, THE WINDOW FOR ANY
KIND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION LOOKS SMALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 10AM AND NOON. THIS
ALSO MEANS THAT ANY TYPE OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE SHORT LIVED, AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID-40S IN MANY OF THESE
LOCATIONS.
ONCE THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, VERY
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION, AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WORKS IN. LOWS INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS, WITH THEM FALLING INTO THE LOW-20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THIS IS WHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT REBOUND POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER-30S AND
MID-40S, BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER-40S AND MID-50S BY THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
CURRENTLY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA, MVFR. THESE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF REPRIEVE, BUT THEN THE COLD AIR STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AND
SLIDE INTO AT LEAST THE NORTH THROUGH 14 TO 15Z MONDAY.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MONDAY, WITH
VALUES RANGING IN THE MID 30% IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE
VALUES WILL REBOUND INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ANOTHER 3/4-1 INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID-30S
BY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 25 50 26 / 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 57 26 51 28 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 52 27 50 30 / 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 54 27 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 53 28 51 31 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 58 28 53 32 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 60 29 54 32 / 10 0 0 0
TROY 60 29 55 32 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...16
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