595
FXUS64 KBMX 170456
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1056 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- WINTER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-59. HOWEVER, THE IMPACT WINDOW SHOULD ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE WHILE THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 20S INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. DAMAGE IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THAT MOVED
THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH SEVERAL CONCENTRATED AREAS OF ENHANCED
DAMAGE THAT WILL BE SURVEYED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY DROP OFF AFTER
THE SUN SETS. LOOK FOR GENERALLY 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH TO SEE IF ANY COLD
AIR STRATUS DEVELOP. THIS COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY A
LITTLE "WARMER" ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 20S
VERSUS LOW TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE LESS WINDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
16
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH DYNAMICALLY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT WILL TRAVEL
IN MORE OF A SOUTHERN PATTERN. THIS WOULD KEEP THE COLDER AIR IN
PLACE BEFORE THE WARM ADVECTION COULD SCOUR OUT THE TRAPPED COLD
AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WE WARM UP BY THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE
LIMITED IMPACTS FROM THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS IN. LOWS INTO THURSDAY MORNING
COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS, WITH THEM FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT REBOUND POSSIBLE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER-30S
AND MID 40S, BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S BY
THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS LOW
LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE. VFR RETURNS BY 10-12Z AS CEILINGS
BEGIN TO LIFT. A BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS IN PLACE LATE
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST SUITE OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT
15-20 KNOT GUSTS LINGERING THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION SO HAVE LEANED ON THE HREF FOR TIMING. ONCE OUR GUSTS DROP
OFF, A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MONDAY, WITH
VALUES RANGING IN THE MID 30% IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE
VALUES WILL REBOUND INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ANOTHER 3/4-1 INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID-30S
BY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 25 50 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 26 51 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 27 50 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 27 52 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 28 51 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 28 53 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 29 54 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 29 55 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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