765
FXUS64 KBMX 170950
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY
OF HIGHWAY 278. THERE IS A RISK FOR MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE 278 CORRIDOR WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES
AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THIS AM, SATELLITE IS INDICATING SLOWLY ERODING STRATUS CLOUDS FROM
S TO N ACROSS C AL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING
IS BUILDING FROM C CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS, THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE DEEP SOUTH. LOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE
FROM THE NRN PART OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED TODAY AFTER A CHILLY START. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, LOOK FOR
WINDS TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS SOON AND LIGHTEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP/DIG TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PUSH A FRONT SWD ACROSS TX. THE ASSOCIATED LOW OVER TX
WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE RIDGING TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH OUR AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
UPWARD A LITTLE ON TUESDAY, WE WILL STILL BE COOL IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT RAINMAKER. WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO OVERCOME, THE SHORT TERM WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE AS PRECIP RETURN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE START OF THE
EXTENDED.
08
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A COLD AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. A TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, INDUCED BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT, FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN FOR A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA; HOWEVER,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY
278 PER SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 0C/32F ISOTHERM
ALOFT. MINOR IMPACTS MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 278 CORRIDOR, MAINLY WEST OF THE
65, STAND THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR BEING NEAR 32 DEGREES BEFORE
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WE'RE HIGHLIGHTING
THE AREAS OF NORTHERN LAMAR, MARION, AND WINSTON COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND HIGHER IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AT
THIS TIME.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH, THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO OUR NORTH
WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD. A HARD FREEZE INVOLVING LOW TEMPERATURES OF 15-
20 DEGREES WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DUE TO A
NORTHERLY BREEZE, WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE INDICATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD,
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET FOR A CHUNK OF THE AREA.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
CHILLY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNALS OF
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TOWARD THE SECOND-HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
A LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLES MAKE IT UNCLEAR AS TO WHO GETS INVOLVED
WITH THE RAIN.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS LOW
LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE. VFR RETURNS BY 10-12Z AS CEILINGS
BEGIN TO LIFT. A BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS IN PLACE LATE
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST SUITE OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT
15-20 KNOT GUSTS LINGERING THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION SO HAVE LEANED ON THE HREF FOR TIMING. ONCE OUR GUSTS DROP
OFF, A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE ARE
NO RH CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
WIDESPREAD MORNING SHOWERS. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE ON A NORTHERLY
HEADING TODAY, EASTERLY ON TUESDAY, AND NORTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSEST TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 26 54 33 / 0 0 0 70
ANNISTON 49 28 55 37 / 0 0 0 70
BIRMINGHAM 48 30 54 37 / 0 0 0 80
TUSCALOOSA 50 31 56 37 / 0 0 0 100
CALERA 49 31 55 40 / 0 0 0 80
AUBURN 51 32 57 42 / 0 0 0 70
MONTGOMERY 52 31 58 43 / 0 0 0 90
TROY 53 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...95
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