501
FXUS64 KBMX 171842
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY
OF HIGHWAY 278. THERE IS A RISK FOR MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE 278 CORRIDOR WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES
AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM, WITH FLOW STARTING OUT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MONDAY,
TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT, MOST OF THE AREA HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT OR NO WIND, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR THE
ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
30S IN THE SOUTH. TUESDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH CLOUDS BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR, BUT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
24
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A COLD AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. A TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, INDUCED BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT, FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN FOR A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA; HOWEVER,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY
278 PER SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 0C/32F ISOTHERM
ALOFT. MINOR IMPACTS MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 278 CORRIDOR, MAINLY WEST OF THE
65, STAND THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR BEING NEAR 32 DEGREES BEFORE
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WE'RE HIGHLIGHTING
THE AREAS OF NORTHERN LAMAR, MARION, AND WINSTON COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND HIGHER IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AT
THIS TIME.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH, THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO OUR NORTH
WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD. A HARD FREEZE INVOLVING LOW TEMPERATURES OF 15-
20 DEGREES WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DUE TO A
NORTHERLY BREEZE, WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE INDICATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD,
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET FOR A CHUNK OF THE AREA.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
CHILLY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNALS OF
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TOWARD THE SECOND-HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
A LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLES MAKE IT UNCLEAR AS TO WHO GETS INVOLVED
WITH THE RAIN.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ON TUESDAY FROM LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE STATE.
24
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY, WITH NO
RH CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE ON A NORTHERLY
HEADING TODAY, EASTERLY ON TUESDAY, AND NORTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSEST TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 25 54 33 / 0 0 0 70
ANNISTON 50 27 56 37 / 0 0 0 70
BIRMINGHAM 49 29 55 37 / 0 0 0 80
TUSCALOOSA 51 29 56 37 / 0 0 0 100
CALERA 50 30 56 40 / 0 0 0 80
AUBURN 52 31 58 42 / 0 0 0 70
MONTGOMERY 53 30 59 43 / 0 0 0 90
TROY 54 31 60 43 / 0 0 0 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...24
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