070
FXUS64 KBMX 180441
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1041 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY
OF HIGHWAY 278. THERE IS A RISK FOR MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE 278 CORRIDOR WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES
AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM, WITH FLOW STARTING OUT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MONDAY,
TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT, MOST OF THE AREA HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT OR NO WIND, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR THE
ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
30S IN THE SOUTH. TUESDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH CLOUDS BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR, BUT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
24
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP REMAINING TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY DEVELOP SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED, HOWEVER. WILL SEE IF THIS IS A TREND THAT
HOLDS AS WE MOVE FURTHER WITHIN RANGE OF HI-RES GUIDANCE AS WE MAY
NEED TO BEGIN MENTIONING LIMITED IMPACTS ABOUT ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH AT MOST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB CAN BE OVERCOME
BY DYNAMIC OR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE TOO LARGE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT.
NONETHELESS, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 0.2 INCHES APPEAR MOST
LIKELY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE MAINLY TO A RISK FOR SLICK ROADWAYS. A
COLD RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE GULF
LOW QUICKLY MOVES BY. A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE SYSTEM, AND HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO HIT COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
86/MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A COLD AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. A TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, INDUCED BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT, FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN FOR A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA; HOWEVER,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY
278 PER SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 0C/32F ISOTHERM
ALOFT. MINOR IMPACTS MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 278 CORRIDOR, MAINLY WEST OF THE
65, STAND THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR BEING NEAR 32 DEGREES BEFORE
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WE'RE HIGHLIGHTING
THE AREAS OF NORTHERN LAMAR, MARION, AND WINSTON COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND HIGHER IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AT
THIS TIME.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH, THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO OUR NORTH
WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD. A HARD FREEZE INVOLVING LOW TEMPERATURES OF 15-
20 DEGREES WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DUE TO A
NORTHERLY BREEZE, WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE INDICATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD,
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET FOR A CHUNK OF THE AREA.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
CHILLY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNALS OF
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TOWARD THE SECOND-HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
A LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLES MAKE IT UNCLEAR AS TO WHO GETS INVOLVED
WITH THE RAIN.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS TAF WINDOW.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NO RH CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE ON A NORTHERLY HEADING TODAY, NORTHEASTERLY ON
TUESDAY, AND NORTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, INCREASING
TO AROUND 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 25 54 32 43 / 0 0 60 60
ANNISTON 27 56 36 45 / 0 0 60 60
BIRMINGHAM 29 55 35 43 / 0 0 70 50
TUSCALOOSA 29 56 35 44 / 0 0 80 50
CALERA 30 56 38 45 / 0 0 70 60
AUBURN 31 58 41 49 / 0 0 50 80
MONTGOMERY 30 59 41 52 / 0 0 70 80
TROY 31 60 41 53 / 0 0 70 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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