542
FXUS64 KBMX 180839
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
239 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY
OF HIGHWAY 278, WITH THE RISK OF TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE
MORNING RUSH IN THIS AREA.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES
AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SWIFTLY INTO
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO
AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, VERY COLD AIR WILL
START TO INVADE THE STATE FROM THE NORTH, CAUSING SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
AT THIS TIME, THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE IMPACT WEATHER FROM
WINTRY PRECIPITATION (IN OUR CWA) ARE THE COUNTIES OF THE US-278
CORRIDOR, FROM MARION COUNTY EASTWARD TO CHEROKEE. A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO THE MARION COUNTY AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS EVENING, AND SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THERE BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE TIMING OF MORNING RUSH AND SCHOOL BUS
ROUTES, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FROM 9PM THIS EVENING TO 9AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OUR 5 NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES. THE COUNTIES JUST SOUTH
OF THERE ARE A CLOSE CALL, AND THEY TOO COULD SEE SOME SLEET OR
WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODEL TRENDS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE WATCHED.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST. FORTUNATELY, THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY, AND ANY TRAVEL ISSUES
SHOULD BE ALLEVIATED AS THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AND
TEMPERATURES CREEP ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/61/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP REMAINING TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY DEVELOP SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED, HOWEVER. WILL SEE IF THIS IS A TREND THAT
HOLDS AS WE MOVE FURTHER WITHIN RANGE OF HI-RES GUIDANCE AS WE MAY
NEED TO BEGIN MENTIONING LIMITED IMPACTS ABOUT ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH AT MOST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB CAN BE OVERCOME
BY DYNAMIC OR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE TOO LARGE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT.
NONETHELESS, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 0.2 INCHES APPEAR MOST
LIKELY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE MAINLY TO A RISK FOR SLICK ROADWAYS. A
COLD RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE GULF
LOW QUICKLY MOVES BY. A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE SYSTEM, AND HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO HIT COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
86/MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A COLD AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. A TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, INDUCED BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT, FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A CHILLY RAIN FOR A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA; HOWEVER,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY
278 PER SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 0C/32F ISOTHERM
ALOFT. MINOR IMPACTS MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 278 CORRIDOR, MAINLY WEST OF THE
65, STAND THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR BEING NEAR 32 DEGREES BEFORE
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WE'RE HIGHLIGHTING
THE AREAS OF NORTHERN LAMAR, MARION, AND WINSTON COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND HIGHER IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AT
THIS TIME.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH, THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO OUR NORTH
WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD. A HARD FREEZE INVOLVING LOW TEMPERATURES OF 15-
20 DEGREES WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DUE TO A
NORTHERLY BREEZE, WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE INDICATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD,
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET FOR A CHUNK OF THE AREA.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
CHILLY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNALS OF
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TOWARD THE SECOND-HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
A LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLES MAKE IT UNCLEAR AS TO WHO GETS INVOLVED
WITH THE RAIN.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS TAF WINDOW.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NO RH CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE ON A NORTHERLY HEADING TODAY, NORTHEASTERLY ON
TUESDAY, AND NORTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, INCREASING
TO AROUND 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 53 33 43 18 / 0 70 40 0
ANNISTON 55 36 46 22 / 0 70 50 10
BIRMINGHAM 55 36 43 20 / 0 70 40 0
TUSCALOOSA 56 36 44 21 / 0 80 30 0
CALERA 55 38 45 23 / 0 80 50 0
AUBURN 57 41 50 26 / 0 60 70 0
MONTGOMERY 59 41 53 25 / 0 80 70 0
TROY 60 41 53 26 / 0 80 80 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-
MARION-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...95
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