449
FXUS64 KBMX 181721
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1121 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY
OF HIGHWAY 278, WITH THE RISK OF TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE
MORNING RUSH IN THIS AREA.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES
AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SWIFTLY INTO
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO
AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, VERY COLD AIR WILL
START TO INVADE THE STATE FROM THE NORTH, CAUSING SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
AT THIS TIME, THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE IMPACT WEATHER FROM
WINTRY PRECIPITATION (IN OUR CWA) ARE THE COUNTIES OF THE US-278
CORRIDOR, FROM MARION COUNTY EASTWARD TO CHEROKEE. A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO THE MARION COUNTY AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS EVENING, AND SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THERE BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE TIMING OF MORNING RUSH AND SCHOOL BUS
ROUTES, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FROM 9PM THIS EVENING TO 9AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OUR 5 NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES. THE COUNTIES JUST SOUTH
OF THERE ARE A CLOSE CALL, AND THEY TOO COULD SEE SOME SLEET OR
WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODEL TRENDS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE WATCHED.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST. FORTUNATELY, THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY, AND ANY TRAVEL ISSUES
SHOULD BE ALLEVIATED AS THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AND
TEMPERATURES CREEP ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/61/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS FOR ANY VULNERABLE POPULATIONS WITHOUT ACCESS TO
ADEQUATE HEATING.
25/OWEN
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL IMPACT THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A 500 MB TROUGH BRINGS VERY LOW HEIGHTS TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES
OF IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO LOWER TEENS SOUTHEAST.
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
OF I-20 THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL OF FROZEN PIPES WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOSTER A WARMING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS, AND PROBABLY LONGER
AT MOST/ALL SITES. STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
WELL ABOVE 3000 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MOVING
INTO TCL, BHM, AND EET LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS A SIGN OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FLYING CONDITIONS JUST BEYOND THE END
OF THIS FORECAST.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE TODAY.
20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FROM THE EAST AT 3 TO 6 MPH.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS RUSHES SOUTHWARD. MINIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 33 43 18 / 0 50 60 10
ANNISTON 56 35 45 20 / 0 50 60 10
BIRMINGHAM 56 35 44 19 / 0 60 60 0
TUSCALOOSA 57 35 43 20 / 0 70 50 0
CALERA 56 37 45 21 / 0 60 60 0
AUBURN 58 40 49 23 / 0 40 80 10
MONTGOMERY 60 42 51 24 / 0 60 80 0
TROY 61 42 52 25 / 0 70 90 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...02
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