617
FXUS64 KBMX 181816
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1216 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY
OF HIGHWAY 278, WITH THE RISK OF TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE IN THIS AREA.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES
AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
TODAY, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE STATE, BRINGING A FOCUS FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THAT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES
OF THE STATE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING TO THE
EAST, BEGINNING IN AREAS AROUND I65 BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM, AND THEN
AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL DROP TO
BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS, MAINLY IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS FOR ANY SNOW
TO PARTIALLY OR FULLY MELT. WITH THE MEDIUM CHANCE OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH ANY ICY PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A
SLEET/RAIN MIX. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE TEMPERATURES
BECOMING FREEZING AT THE SURFACE, AREAS IN THE NORTH MAY SEE A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, THEN FREEZING RAIN, THEN SLEET. WITH THE MAIN
AGREEMENT OF FREEZING TEMPS AND WINTRY MIX OCCURRING IN THE EARLY
MORNING, AND THE INCREASED CHANCES OF SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS
DURING A MORNING COMMUTE, HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH AREAS IN THE ADVISORY. THE
SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS DURING THE DAY, BUT LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING, THE
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. IF COOLING CAN OCCUR AS
THE SNOW/RAIN FALLS THROUGH THE COLUMN, THE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING VALUES FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO
AT MOST. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS.
SNOW TOTALS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS
OF CENTRAL AL WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5" POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF LAMAR, FAYETTE, AND WINSTON. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOST OF THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT, RATES SHOULD BE LOWER. THERE
COULD BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THESE SAME AREAS, DEPENDING ON
HOW LONG THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT THE SURFACE.
FOR AREAS NOT IN THE ADVISORY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING WITH ONLY RAIN ANTICIPATED. PW VALUES ARE NEAR 90TH
PERCENTILE ON A FEW OF THE MORE SATURATED MODELS, AND THERE IS
ALMOST ZERO CAPE ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. PW VALUES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS GREATER, AROUND AREAS OF I85 AND SOUTH, WITH HIGHER
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIP
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
INCREASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOW SATURATED
LOW AND MID LEVELS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH SATURATED
LEVELS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. WITH
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, THAT COLD
AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY MOISTURE. AREAS I20 AND NORTH COULD SEE
FLURRIES AS LATE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES
START TO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THIS POINT AS THE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, LIMITING HOW MUCH ACTUALLY REACHES THE GROUND.
24
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL IMPACT THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A 500 MB TROUGH BRINGS VERY LOW HEIGHTS TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES
OF IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO LOWER TEENS SOUTHEAST.
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
OF I-20 THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL OF FROZEN PIPES WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOSTER A WARMING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A BOUNDARY WILL BRING RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
KTCL SHOWS RAIN ENDING BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THE OTHER TAF SITES WOULD SEE RAIN ENDING
BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP IFR
CEILINGS OVER THE STATE. THERE COULD BE SNOW FLURRIES AT KBHM,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS.
24
FIRE WEATHER
A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE TODAY.
20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FROM THE EAST AT 3 TO 6 MPH.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS RUSHES SOUTHWARD. MINIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 33 43 18 / 0 50 60 0
ANNISTON 56 35 45 20 / 0 50 60 0
BIRMINGHAM 56 35 44 19 / 0 60 60 0
TUSCALOOSA 57 35 43 21 / 0 70 50 0
CALERA 56 37 45 21 / 0 60 60 0
AUBURN 58 40 49 24 / 0 40 80 0
MONTGOMERY 60 42 51 24 / 0 60 80 0
TROY 61 42 52 25 / 0 70 90 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...24
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