454
FXUS64 KBMX 190843
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
243 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF
HIGHWAY 278, WITH THE RISK OF TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE IN THIS AREA.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES
AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING, AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE NIGHTS. HAVE BEEN WATCH DRYBULB AND WETBULB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE WETBULB ANALYSIS SHOWS READINGS
OF 30-31 DEGREES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF MARION AND WINSTON
COUNTIES (AS OF 08Z), WITH AIR TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
OBSERVATION SITES IN NORTHEAST MS WERE REPORTING (MOSTLY LIGHT)
SNOW. WITH THE COLUMN MOISTENING UP IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA, I THINK
WE'LL START TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP REPORTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THERE'S STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP IN
LAMAR/FAYETTE/WALKER COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FROZEN OR
FREEZING PRECIP FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE THERE
REMAINS LOWER. EVEN FARTHER SOUTH, A COLD RAIN IS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION (BE IT SOLID OR LIQUID) WILL BE IN AND OUT OF HERE
RATHER QUICKLY, ON THE ORDER OF 6 HOURS OR LESS IN THE NORTH, AND 6
TO 8 HOURS (AT MOST) IN THE SOUTH. BY NOON, THE LAST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE GONE FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE COLD. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO OUR
AREA TONIGHT, AND THE STIFF WIND THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STICK AROUND TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
/61/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL IMPACT THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A 500 MB TROUGH BRINGS VERY LOW HEIGHTS TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES
OF IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO LOWER TEENS SOUTHEAST.
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
OF I-20 THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL OF FROZEN PIPES WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOSTER A WARMING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE INTO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. LOOK FOR REDUCED VIS AND CIG OVER THE MORNING,
AS PERIODS OF RAIN KEEPS THINGS REDUCED. HOWEVER, SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX SLIGHTLY BACK INTO MVFR CATEGORY, AS GUSTY WINDS
BEGIN TO HELP CLEAR UP THE VIS SLIGHTLY.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE TODAY.
20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FROM THE EAST AT 3 TO 6 MPH.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS RUSHES SOUTHWARD. MINIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 18 34 15 / 60 0 0 0
ANNISTON 48 21 35 16 / 70 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 45 20 34 17 / 60 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 46 20 36 18 / 50 0 0 0
CALERA 48 22 35 19 / 70 0 0 0
AUBURN 50 25 40 21 / 90 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 25 42 21 / 90 0 0 0
TROY 53 25 42 21 / 90 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-
WALKER-WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...02
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