552
FXUS64 KBMX 191138
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
538 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- AREAS OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. A COLD RAIN IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS
BY NOON TODAY.
- A HARD FREEZE AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING, AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE NIGHTS. HAVE BEEN WATCH DRYBULB AND WETBULB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE WETBULB ANALYSIS SHOWS READINGS
OF 30-31 DEGREES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF MARION AND WINSTON
COUNTIES (AS OF 08Z), WITH AIR TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
OBSERVATION SITES IN NORTHEAST MS WERE REPORTING (MOSTLY LIGHT)
SNOW. WITH THE COLUMN MOISTENING UP IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA, I THINK
WE'LL START TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP REPORTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THERE'S STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP IN
LAMAR/FAYETTE/WALKER COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FROZEN OR
FREEZING PRECIP FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE THERE
REMAINS LOWER. EVEN FARTHER SOUTH, A COLD RAIN IS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION (BE IT SOLID OR LIQUID) WILL BE IN AND OUT OF HERE
RATHER QUICKLY, ON THE ORDER OF 6 HOURS OR LESS IN THE NORTH, AND 6
TO 8 HOURS (AT MOST) IN THE SOUTH. BY NOON, THE LAST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE GONE FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE COLD. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO OUR
AREA TONIGHT, AND THE STIFF WIND THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STICK AROUND TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
/61/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN
PIPES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS FOR THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 5 TO
15 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FOSTER A WARMING TREND FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
OVER THE WEEKEND AND SUPPORT CARRYING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD (WHICH INCLUDES SOME SNOW AND SLEET IN
THE NORTH) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST 3 TO 6
HOURS OF THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE. EVERYTHING IN THE MODELS AND
ASSOCIATED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO FROM VFR TO
IFR RATHER QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. I'M BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS ON THIS SCENARIO, AND WILL ADMIT CONFIDENCE IN
THE CEILING FORECAST IS QUITE LOW. EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS LATER THIS MORNING, MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW MVFR TO
PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
THAT'S WHAT THE FORECAST IS BASED ON, AND UPDATES CAN BE MADE (IN
EITHER DIRECTION) AS THE SCENARIO PLAYING OUT BECOMES MORE
OBVIOUS.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MID AND LATE
MORNING HOURS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF DRY ARCTIC AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RH VALUES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE, AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH AT 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE ON FRIDAY, AND RH VALUES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 25
PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 18 34 15 / 60 0 0 0
ANNISTON 48 21 35 17 / 70 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 45 20 34 17 / 60 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 46 20 36 18 / 50 0 0 0
CALERA 48 22 35 19 / 70 0 0 0
AUBURN 50 25 40 21 / 90 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 25 42 22 / 90 0 0 0
TROY 53 25 42 21 / 90 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-
WALKER-WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION.../61/
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