150
FXUS64 KBMX 191902
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
102 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- A HARD FREEZE AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTED INTO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A DEGREE OR
TWO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
STATE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP WITH WINDS GUSTING
20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BY THURSDAY MORNING, GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 28 MPH IN
MANY PLACES.
THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S OVERNIGHT, AND WITH THE GUSTING WINDS, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE 15 DEGREES OR LESS FOR AREAS OF I85 AND NORTH, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I20. THE FAR NORTHEAST HAS WIND CHILL
VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES.
GUSTING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS DECREASING AND
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THE ENTIRE
DAY THURSDAY, WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH BARELY REACHING 20
DEGREE WIND CHILL.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
24
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN
PIPES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS FOR THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 5 TO
15 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FOSTER A WARMING TREND FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
OVER THE WEEKEND AND SUPPORT CARRYING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW HAS SET UP BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
THE STATE, LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED WITH IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE STATE SHOULD START TO SEE CLEARING
SKIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
GUSTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS IS FROM A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
24
FIRE WEATHER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. RH VALUES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE, AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH AT 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE ON FRIDAY, AND RH VALUES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 25
PERCENT IN A FEW AREAS IN THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 18 35 15 45 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 21 37 17 45 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 19 35 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 20 38 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 21 37 19 45 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 24 41 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 24 42 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 24 43 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...24
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