613
FXUS64 KBMX 192315
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
FROM 0 TO 15 DEGREES WITH THE COLDEST VALUES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTED INTO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A DEGREE OR
TWO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
STATE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP WITH WINDS GUSTING
20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BY THURSDAY MORNING, GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 28 MPH IN
MANY PLACES.
THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S OVERNIGHT, AND WITH THE GUSTING WINDS, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE 15 DEGREES OR LESS FOR AREAS OF I85 AND NORTH, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I20. THE FAR NORTHEAST HAS WIND CHILL
VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES.
GUSTING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS DECREASING AND
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THE ENTIRE
DAY THURSDAY, WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH BARELY REACHING 20
DEGREE WIND CHILL.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
24
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHILE LONGWAVE RIDGING MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
STRONG AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED
ACROSS IOWA, RESULTING IN COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT WITH TIME AS IT MOVES OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND SKIRT OUR AREA, MOVING EAST OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BECOME CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER WEST- CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH TIME AS IT
BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, OPENING UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND BROAD
RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. WEAKER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE
LOWER PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL
BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH PERHAPS
SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED INTO EARLY INTO THE NEXT WORK
WEEK, SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO DEVELOP AND
APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. LIMITED RETURN FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED AHEAD O THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, ALLOWING FOR
MINOR INCREASES IN DEW POINTS WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
MODERATE.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER, BUT EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST
PAST 20/16Z. AS SKIES BEGIN TO RETURN TO VFR, VERY GUSTY WINDS
WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH LIKELY AS WELL.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN COLD AND DRY AIR OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
NEAR THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MINIMUMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MID 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. 20
FOOT WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 8 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. EXPECT LOWER 20 FOOT WIND VALUES ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 19 35 14 45 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 22 37 17 46 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 19 35 16 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 22 38 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 22 37 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 25 41 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 25 42 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 25 43 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.../44/
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