229
FXUS64 KBMX 201123
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
523 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS FROM 0 TO 15 DEGREES WITH THE
COLDEST VALUES NORTH. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
PERSISTENT CLOUDS, AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES, WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE CHILLY TODAY, AND IT WILL
PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS IN
MISSISSIPPI. AND A FEW THIN SPOTS OR "SUCKER HOLES" IN WESTERN
ALABAMA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CLEARING PROCESS WILL BE
A SLOW ONE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY START SEEING
SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THAT, THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD. CONTRASTED WITH
THE COLD SPELL WE HAD IN JANUARY, THIS CURRENT ONE HAS THE ADDED
ELEMENT OF WIND CHILL. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AS IS.
/61/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB
AND MULTIPLE SMALL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S NEXT WEEK.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTING TO SHOW SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
OVERCAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY INDICATES
THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AROUND 15Z-16Z, WHICH WILL LEAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE
STIFF AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING SOME AND LOSING
THEIR GUSTINESS ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
LOWER, BUT 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 33 15 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 35 17 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 33 17 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 36 18 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 35 19 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 38 20 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 41 22 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 41 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION.../61/
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