977
FXUS64 KBMX 201646
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1046 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS FROM 0 TO 15 DEGREES WITH THE
COLDEST VALUES NORTH. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY
AND COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE STATE. THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HAVE A FEW AREAS THAT HOVER AT OR
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
HAS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AT LEAST.
A FEW AREAS COULD SEE A FLURRY OR TWO, BUT MOST OF THE WINTRY
PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING INCREASING DRY
AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS. THIS GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS WEAKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING, CALM WINDS ARE
UNLIKELY, SO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN KEEPING THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PRE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, THE WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE ACTUALLY
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL
VALUES IN AREAS OF I20 AND NORTH.
FRIDAY, A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO OUT OF THE EAST AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP START TO TRANSITION WARMER AIR INTO
THE STATE. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SKIES HAVE A MODERATE
CHANCE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
24
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB
AND MULTIPLE SMALL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S NEXT WEEK.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE STATE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND BEGINNING TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
24
FIRE WEATHER
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
LOWER, BUT 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 34 14 46 21 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 36 17 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 34 17 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 37 17 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 36 18 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 39 20 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 42 22 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 42 21 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...24
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