594
FXUS64 KBMX 210403
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS FROM 0 TO 15 DEGREES WITH THE
COLDEST VALUES NORTH. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
NO UPDATE IS NEEDED TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.
/44/
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY
AND COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE STATE. THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY HAVE A FEW AREAS THAT HOVER AT OR
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
HAS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AT LEAST.
A FEW AREAS COULD SEE A FLURRY OR TWO, BUT MOST OF THE WINTRY
PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING INCREASING DRY
AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS. THIS GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS WEAKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING, CALM WINDS ARE
UNLIKELY, SO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN KEEPING THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PRE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, THE WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE ACTUALLY
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL
VALUES IN AREAS OF I20 AND NORTH.
FRIDAY, A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO OUT OF THE EAST AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP START TO TRANSITION WARMER AIR INTO
THE STATE. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SKIES HAVE A MODERATE
CHANCE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
24
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF FRI NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN CONUS. BY SUN, THE RIDGE CENTER BECOMES MORE CONFINED
TO THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMS FOR MID FEB
AND MODERATE UPWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR SAT THROUGH
TUE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND BY WED AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONT, BUT SHOWERS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT INTO THU
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.
08
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB
AND MULTIPLE SMALL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S NEXT WEEK.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH WITH NORTHEAST 20 FOOT WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
3 TO 8 MPH AND LESS GUSTY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AT 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGING IN CONTROL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 14 46 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 17 46 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 17 45 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 17 46 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 18 46 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 20 47 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 22 48 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 21 49 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION.../44/
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