254
FXUS64 KBMX 211714
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1114 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.
EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 15 DEGREES WITH THE
COLDEST VALUES NORTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
- FOR PIPES LOCATED IN EXPOSED OR UNHEATED LOCATIONS, RESIDENTS
SHOULD INSULATE, DRAIN, OR ALLOW WATER TO DRIP FROM THE FAUCET
AT A TRICKLE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- PERSONS SHOULD ALSO ENSURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE AND SAFE SOURCES
OF HEAT FOR THEMSELVES AND ANY PETS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. A SPRAWLING 1042MB SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT VERY COLD AND DRY AIR SOUTHWARD
TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FRIGID CONDITIONS
FIRST THING THIS MORNING, AND THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. WIND CHILLS AT SUNRISE WILL BE IN THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS, WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO DANGEROUS TERRITORY IF
YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. THANKFULLY, AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO CENTER OVERHEAD, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GREATLY
DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH
CIRRUS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN MARION COUNTY TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN BARBOUR
COUNTY.
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CALM WINDS WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE, WITH A FEW ISOLATED
TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY SATURDAY, OUR AIR
MASS WILL BE ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMING TO AN END. WE WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WITH A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2025
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB AND
MULTIPLE SMALL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO SUPPRESSED TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST.
POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS, A FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AREAWIDE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT CLOUD BASES AND COVERAGE WILL BE FAR BELOW ANY
RESTRICTIVE CRITERIA.
05
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH WITH NORTHEAST 20 FOOT WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
3 TO 8 MPH AND LESS GUSTY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AT 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGING IN CONTROL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 44 19 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 44 23 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 44 25 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 44 25 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 45 25 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 46 28 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 47 27 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 48 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05
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