115
FXUS64 KBMX 212108
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION WHILE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI. ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
DETECTED ON SATELLITE OVER PORTIONS OF OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES, EXTENDING FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 4-8 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
40 FAR NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS THE CENTER MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
FROM 2-4 MPH. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS FORECAST WITH LOWS FROM
AROUND 20 FAR NORTH TO READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WITH TIME AS IT CONSOLIDATES FURTHER AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATER IN THE DAY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY AS MORE HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
AT 3-6 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE A SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY FROM 4-8 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
05
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF SAT NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN CONUS CENTERED IN ON THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER SUN EVENING IN THE FAR SRN COUNTIES AS AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SE US OUT OF TX AND WEAKENS.
TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMS FOR MID/LATE FEB AND MODERATE
UPWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENS ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR MON THROUGH TUE. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS BACK AROUND BY WED AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU BEFORE AND POST FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NO
TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
08
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2025
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB AND
MULTIPLE SMALL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO SUPPRESSED TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST.
POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS, A FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AREAWIDE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT CLOUD BASES AND COVERAGE WILL BE FAR BELOW ANY
RESTRICTIVE CRITERIA.
05
FIRE WEATHER
OUR COLD AIRMASS OF LATE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING A LITTLE EACH DAY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND THANKS TO SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.
GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGING IN CONTROL, EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER SUNDAY
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF ALABAMA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 19 51 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 23 52 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 25 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 25 50 26 55 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 25 51 28 55 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 28 52 31 58 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 27 54 30 58 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 28 56 30 58 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....08/87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...05
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