029
FXUS64 KBMX 221846
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST OVER MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
A SECOND PRESSURE MAXIMUM LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WHILE
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 MPH.
TONIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
CENTERED OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DAMPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST, BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY
MORNING WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES
CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF HOUSTON TEXAS.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH THICKER CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH. A HAD FREEZE IS AGAIN FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
20S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH
LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN
GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 22 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 280 CORRIDORS
SOUTHWEST WITH A MEDIUM (40-65%) CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
05
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY COME ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD COULD SKIRT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY.
A LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT MODEST MOISTURE QUALITY SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY AND PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOST CONCENTRATED
SOUTHWEST WITH LESS DENSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE AREA.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES TODAY THAN WAS OBSERVED ON
FRIDAY. STILL, MINRH VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE WEST AND LIGHT
20FT WINDS. RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING
MINRH VALUES BETWEEN THE MID 30S AND MID 40S. 20FT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 23 53 30 63 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 27 53 35 64 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 28 52 35 63 / 0 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 27 53 34 65 / 0 30 20 0
CALERA 29 53 37 64 / 0 30 20 0
AUBURN 31 55 40 63 / 0 20 30 10
MONTGOMERY 31 54 41 64 / 0 40 40 10
TROY 31 56 41 65 / 0 40 50 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page