373
FXUS64 KBMX 222041
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
241 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST OVER MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
A SECOND PRESSURE MAXIMUM LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WHILE
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 MPH.
TONIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
CENTERED OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DAMPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST, BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY
MORNING WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES
CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF HOUSTON TEXAS.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH THICKER CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH. A HAD FREEZE IS AGAIN FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
20S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH
LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN
GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 22 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 280 CORRIDORS
SOUTHWEST WITH A MEDIUM (40-65%) CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
05
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY, WE WILL RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY, WHEN
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND HELPS
DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. GFS IS A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT, AND A
MODEL BLENDED POP OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY AND PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOST CONCENTRATED
SOUTHWEST WITH LESS DENSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE AREA.
05
FIRE WEATHER
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING AN AREA OF
RAIN INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND BRING RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS FOR THE START AND MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE NO
OBVIOUS WIND OR RH CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 23 53 30 62 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 27 53 34 64 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 28 52 34 62 / 0 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 27 53 34 64 / 0 30 20 0
CALERA 29 53 37 63 / 0 30 20 0
AUBURN 31 55 40 64 / 0 20 30 10
MONTGOMERY 31 54 40 64 / 0 40 40 10
TROY 31 56 41 65 / 0 40 70 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...05
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