024
FXUS64 KBMX 270602
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
102 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1256 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A THREAT
OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN THE RISK LEVEL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
NO UPDATE IS NEEDED TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.
/44/
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THERE'S NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THIS PART OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE FAIR-WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. BATCHES OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SCOOT BY AT TIMES, RELATED TO A MOISTURE ENVELOPE FANNING OUTWARD
FROM AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT'LL BE A TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME COOL MORNING/WARM AFTERNOON PATTERN THOUGH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT SEASONABLY WARM AS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OUR WAY.
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A TROUGH AXIS LOCATED NEAR NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE INTERMIXED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF CAPE MAINTAINING AT LEAST 1,000 J/KG SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN STORMS ARRIVE TO OUR AREA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE STEEP, PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS, RELATED TO AN EML (ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER) ADVECTED OUR WAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, A
STRONGLY SHEARED AND VEERING WIND PROFILE IS INDICATED ALONGSIDE
A POTENTIALLY FAVORABLY TIMED ARRIVAL OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THIS STORM ENVIRONMENT, SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE, WOULD FAVOR
VIGOROUS AND SUSTAINED STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS, WITH ALL HAZARDS: TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
LARGE HAIL. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE TO ASSESS NEW
DATA AND TRENDS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS
EVENT.
*IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR! RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST
UPDATES AND REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN. THIS
INCLUDES HAVING A QUICKLY ACCESSIBLE SHELTER/SAFE PLACE AND
METHODS TO OBTAIN WEATHER ALERTS OVERNIGHT/WHILE SLEEPING.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO START WILL HAVE
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS E
CONUS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WITH WEAK GRADIENTS BUT SE
OVERALL (3-6KTS) AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND PUSHES EWD OFF ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE OFF/ON THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
08
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM RHS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS A LARGER CHUNK
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. RHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST VALUES GENERALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS ON FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RHS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH IT APPEARS LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
INTERSTATE 20, EAST OF BIRMINGHAM, COULD AGAIN DIP INTO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. 20-FOOT WINDS SHOULD RUN BETWEEN 5-10 MPH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY AT TIMES,
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY NEAR 5 MPH, AND SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY
BUT CLOSER TO 10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 78 50 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 78 52 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 79 57 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 81 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 79 56 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 77 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 80 54 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 80 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../44/89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...08
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