142
FXUS64 KBMX 271100
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A THREAT
OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT IS UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THIS AM, SATELLITE IS INDICATING A LARGE SWATH OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE
WITH LOTS OF CIRRUS FANNING ACROSS AL. OTHERWISE, A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS ERN CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE EWD THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, THERE IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER NW MEXICO WITH RIPPLES
COMING OUT OF THIS WAVE AND GENERATING THE COPIOUS CLOUD COVERAGE
THAT WE ARE SEEING ON SATELLITE STREAMING INTO AL. THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE WILL PROGRESS ENE OVER THE SHORT TERM ACROSS TX AND INTO
AR/LA BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW INTO C AL CHANGING FROM NW TO SW
AS IT NEARS US ON FRIDAY. OUR COOLER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GET CUT OFF
TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EWD. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SE IN
RESPONSE AND THEN MORE SRLY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH A
SLOW HUMIDITY INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
08
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGH (60-70%) RAIN
CHANCES, BUT THERE IS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW QUICKLY
IT MOVES IN, PROBABLY RELATED TO HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TEXAS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THERE WON'T BE ANY SURFACE LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND WHILE THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR RUMBLES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY NIGHT, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR. ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY AS DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
(EML) MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THESE COULD BE
STRONG GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS OF PIECES OF
VORTICITY EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. FOR EXAMPLE THE LATEST GFS
HAS A QUICKER SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY, WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER, NEGATIVE TILT WAVE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
MID-SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS
HAVE RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS
AND ASSOCIATED LLJ RESPONSE AND SURFACE WIND DIRECTION. WHAT IS
KNOWN IS THAT A WELL-ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MID-60S DEW POINTS
AIDED BY SATURDAY'S PRIMER WAVE. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG UP TO 2000 J/KG, EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. UPPER-AIR PATTERN AND HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, PROBABLY EVENTUALLY BECOMING
MORE LINEAR BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT COULD ACTUALLY AID IN
SUPERCELLS HAVING MORE "ROOM TO ROAM" IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. PARAMETERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
TORNADO THREAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. LOOKING AT CLUSTER
ANALYSES, THERE IS VERY LITTLE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE EPS AND GEFS
MEMBERS WHILE THE GEPS MEMBERS LIE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE EPS
MEMBERS INDICATE STRONGER 500MB AND 850MB WINDS THAN THE GEFS
MEMBERS, AS WELL AS MORE BACKED SURFACE WINDS. ALSO, THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF INDICATED A MORE UPRIGHT (NORTH-SOUTH)
CONVECTION ORIENTATION, WITH CONVECTION APPEARING TO INITIATE ON A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY, AS THEY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THERE IS MORE OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT VS. A MORE CONCERNING OVERNIGHT STRONG
TORNADO THREAT.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A QUIET WEATHER DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LURKING IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME,
BUT ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS SUBSTANTIAL AT THAT TIME RANGE.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO START, WE WILL
HAVE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
E CONUS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY WITH WEAK GRADIENTS BUT
ESE-SE OVERALL (3-7KTS) AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND PUSHES EWD TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST. THERE WILL BE OFF/ON HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
08
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. RHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH
THE LOWEST VALUES GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN DEW POINTS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MINIMUM RHS IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
20-FOOT WINDS SHOULD RUN 5 TO 7 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY,
AND SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT CLOSER TO 10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 78 50 81 58 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 78 52 81 58 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 79 57 81 61 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 81 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 79 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 77 54 81 59 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 80 54 83 60 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 80 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...08
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