998
FXUS64 KBMX 280829
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
INCREASING, AND THE RISK LEVEL IS NOW A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THREATS INCLUDE
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TO OUR WEST, UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
TEXAS TOWARDS LOUISIANA. AT THE SURFACE, A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S. OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, WINDS MAY
BE BREEZY AT TIMES, GENERALLY WEST OF I-65 AS A ~30 KNOT LLJ BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LATEST ROUND OF HREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE
JET TO SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL WARRANT A 20-50% CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER OUT DURING THIS PERIOD AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING AT THIS TIME.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL DECREASED
RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT, WITH UNCERTAIN LIFT. HOWEVER, GIVEN A
SATURATED COLUMN SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE UNDER-DOING LIGHT
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, AND
WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK. GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. WHILE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON, SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE EAST.
COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS,
KEEPING HIGHS FROM WARMING UP AS MUCH IN THE EAST. THERE WILL BE
LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS, SOME OF THESE COULD
BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, WITH A LOW BUT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A BROAD BUT AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM IOWA TO THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML
SHOULD CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING. A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER
60S DEW POINTS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THAT TIME OF
NIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FORCING WILL BE MORE
SUBTLE AT THIS LATITUDE, BUT THERE WILL BE HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE IS ALSO HINTING
AT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SETUP
WITH WESTERLY BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE
SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A BIT STRONGER 850 MB FLOW, AND
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESPECIALLY TRENDING TOWARDS REMAINING BACKED
LONGER DUE TO SOME PRESSURE FALLS. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASING
TORNADO THREAT, OF SPECIAL CONCERN GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO GET WARNINGS SUCH AS A WEATHER RADIO
THAT WILL WAKE YOU UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT! STILL SOME
MESOSCALE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT BUT AN UPGRADE TO A LEVEL 3 OUT
OF 5 RISK SEEMS WARRANTED, WHICH COULD BE EXPANDED IN LATER
UPDATES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING AS WELL. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND MONDAY AFTERNOON,
SUSPECT THAT OUTFLOW WILL PUSH MOST OF THE STORMS OUT OF THE AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE NEXT TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY, WHOSE EASTWARD PROGRESS COULD BE
SLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH TO OUR EAST. AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. AT A MINIMUM THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING TO OUR WEST, AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WOULD
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. INTRODUCED A
MENTION OF GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LLJ. LATEST HREF PROBS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.
WINDS RELAX AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH MIN RHS AROUND 20-30%. 20FT
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 MPH. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 80 59 78 59 / 0 0 20 50
ANNISTON 80 60 77 60 / 0 0 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 81 62 77 63 / 0 0 30 50
TUSCALOOSA 83 61 76 62 / 10 10 50 50
CALERA 80 61 76 62 / 0 10 30 50
AUBURN 80 60 76 61 / 0 0 10 40
MONTGOMERY 83 62 79 63 / 0 10 20 40
TROY 82 61 79 62 / 0 0 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM....32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...95
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