902
FXUS64 KBMX 290519
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
INCREASING, AND THE RISK LEVEL IS NOW A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THREATS INCLUDE
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
NO UPDATE IS NEEDED TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.
/44/
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND TOWARDS
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOWER-LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC, SO CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL BECOME MORE AFFECTED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND DEEP FLOW SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT, RAIN AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HI-RES MODELS DO INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND AROUND 20-25KTS OF EFF. SHEAR, SO I DID ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S WEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F IN THE
EAST.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL TIMING (WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES) OF THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SEVERE THREAT AS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BELOW.
25/OWEN
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL DECREASED
RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT, WITH UNCERTAIN LIFT. HOWEVER, GIVEN A
SATURATED COLUMN SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE UNDER-DOING LIGHT
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, AND
WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK. GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. WHILE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON, SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE EAST.
COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS,
KEEPING HIGHS FROM WARMING UP AS MUCH IN THE EAST. THERE WILL BE
LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS, SOME OF THESE COULD
BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, WITH A LOW BUT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A BROAD BUT AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM IOWA TO THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML
SHOULD CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING. A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER
60S DEW POINTS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THAT TIME OF
NIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FORCING WILL BE MORE
SUBTLE AT THIS LATITUDE, BUT THERE WILL BE HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE IS ALSO HINTING
AT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SETUP
WITH WESTERLY BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE
SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A BIT STRONGER 850 MB FLOW, AND
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESPECIALLY TRENDING TOWARDS REMAINING BACKED
LONGER DUE TO SOME PRESSURE FALLS. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASING
TORNADO THREAT, OF SPECIAL CONCERN GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO GET WARNINGS SUCH AS A WEATHER RADIO
THAT WILL WAKE YOU UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT! STILL SOME
MESOSCALE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT BUT AN UPGRADE TO A LEVEL 3 OUT
OF 5 RISK SEEMS WARRANTED, WHICH COULD BE EXPANDED IN LATER
UPDATES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING AS WELL. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND MONDAY AFTERNOON,
SUSPECT THAT OUTFLOW WILL PUSH MOST OF THE STORMS OUT OF THE AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE NEXT TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY, WHOSE EASTWARD PROGRESS COULD BE
SLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH TO OUR EAST. AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. AT A MINIMUM THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING TO OUR WEST, AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WOULD
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ASN WHERE SOME MVFR HZ REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BRIEF TEMPO FOR VIS REDUCTIONS THERE. VCSH SPREADS
OVER MOST TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE. NOT ALL ACTIVITY ON RADAR WILL
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND INITIALLY BUT AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN
THROUGH THE DAY, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE RAIN REPORTED. GREATER
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY COME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL BUT MGM. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO SETTLE IN TOWARDS THE END
OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH MIN RHS AROUND 20-30%. 20FT
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 MPH. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
ON TOMORROW. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 77 58 76 61 / 30 60 70 70
ANNISTON 77 60 77 62 / 30 50 80 60
BIRMINGHAM 77 62 77 64 / 40 60 70 70
TUSCALOOSA 75 62 80 64 / 70 60 60 70
CALERA 75 62 77 64 / 40 60 70 60
AUBURN 76 61 77 64 / 20 40 80 30
MONTGOMERY 80 62 79 64 / 30 50 70 30
TROY 79 61 79 64 / 30 40 70 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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