570
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS,
TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL, BUT THE RELATIVE INTENSITY OF EACH
THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE FACTORS AND CONVECTIVE
MODE.
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
RIPPLES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL RESULT
IN SPELLS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
MODELS SUGGEST ONE OF THOSE RIPPLED WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY
HIGHER AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.
GIVEN WEAK MU-CAPE/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, A FEW SHORT-LIVED STORMS
MAY BE INTERMIXED WITH THE SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY,
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT, WEAK FORCING COMBINED
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ELEVATE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A
DOWNTREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ACROSS EAST ALABAMA, SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS SHOULD LAST A BIT LONGER AND, GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR, A STRONG STORM MAY MANAGE TO DEVELOP IF THERE ARE ANY
PERSISTENT BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING, BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH A SEVERE RISK
STARTING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY, OF WHICH IS DETAILED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERALL TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION
(WHICH IS INCLUDED BELOW). THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM A TOUCH AND HAVE
BACKED THE TIMING UP ACCORDINGLY. WE ARE SEEING THE FIRST REAL HINT
OF THE CAMS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND OVERALL THE PARAMETER SPACE LOOKS
FAVORABLE WITH A MODERATELY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
FORCING WILL BE QUASI-LINEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONT. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
FOR EMBEDDED QUASI-CELLULAR CONVECTION AND AT LEAST TRANSIENT
MESOCYCLONES.
EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO CLEAR MUCH OF OUR AREA (FROM WEST TO EAST) BY
MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES -
POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD AT TIMES - FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST, SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACT WEATHER. OTHERWISE THE LONG RANGE LOOKS WARM AND
HUMID - ALMOST SUMMER LIKE - WITH FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR MANY
AREAS.
15
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW, WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IT APPEARS A WEAK
PERTURBATION WILL INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS SE ARKANSAS/NW
MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH, UNDERGOING SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD WITH A MESO-LOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
BE SUGGESTING THESE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY THE
TIME THEY REACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
SHEAR PROFILES WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THE
EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD AID THIS
CONVECTION AS IT SWEEPS EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD, EVENTUALLY EXITING
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTIVE MODE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELDS/HODOGRAPHS WILL DETERMINE WHAT THE HIGHEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE, I.E. DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED
TORNADOES WITH AN MCS VS. TORNADOES AND HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS,
WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT SOME FLAVOR OF
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, AS MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS COMBINE WITH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN A VOLATILE AIR MASS FOR THAT TIME
OF MORNING WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MESOSCALE TRENDS FOR ANY POTENTIAL EXPANSION TO THE ENHANCED RISK.
A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BEFORE THE FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SET UP IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WESTERN
TROUGH, AND A STRONG 591 DECAMETER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTING UP IN
THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS RIDGE
FULLY SETS IN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IT'S UNCERTAIN IF ANY CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT
INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONDITIONALLY BE
FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. WITH FLOW NOT BEING
ANTICYCLONIC YET LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAY NEED TO
BEGIN MESSAGING A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. ALSO, WITH
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE IN A "RING OF FIRE"- LIKE PATTERN, WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
IN CASE THEY ARE ABLE TO LOCALLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE, GIVEN
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING, FEATURING A MULTI-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A
TAD LATER WITH THE ONSET OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL
SHOW THESE CATEGORIES BEING REACHED SOMETIME TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO A PORTION OF SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT PREDICTABILITY AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW SO I DID NOT INCLUDE
TS/VCTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS TODAY.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY WHILE SOUTHERLY 20FT WINDS WILL GUST TO 15 TO 20 MPH AT
TIMES. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 76 59 74 / 60 80 70 100
ANNISTON 60 77 61 73 / 60 80 70 100
BIRMINGHAM 62 77 62 74 / 60 80 80 100
TUSCALOOSA 62 80 62 76 / 60 70 80 80
CALERA 63 77 63 73 / 60 80 70 100
AUBURN 62 75 64 74 / 50 80 40 90
MONTGOMERY 63 81 64 76 / 50 70 40 100
TROY 62 79 64 77 / 40 70 30 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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