864
FXUS64 KBMX 301625
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1125 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- A FAST-MOVING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RISK LEVEL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IS A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL THREATS WILL INCLUDE QLCS TORNADOES AND
HAIL.
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CURRENTLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. AT FIRST THOUGHT, SOME OF
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ALOFT AS THE EML WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER,
THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL NOW THAT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
ANVIL CONTAMINATION HAS BEEN UNRELENTING THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS MAY BREAKOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SO AT
BEST, POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO COLD POOL OVER MS AND
TN AND MERGE INTO AN MCS OR PERHAPS SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS
DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. TIMING
HAS SPED UP JUST A BIT, WHICH WOULD BE TYPICAL IN THIS SETUP. I
STILL HAVE SOME HESITATIONS ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT OVER MOST OF
WEST ALABAMA AS A DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH BACKING
WIND PROFILES BETWEEN 2 TO 3KM. THIS WOULD ACT TO EITHER SUPPRESS
ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AND/OR BECOME A HINDRANCE TO UPDRAFT
STRENGTH. THAT BEING SAID, THE PURE MECHANICAL FORCING OF A STRONG
COLD POOL WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT.
THE FINAL CONCERN WOULD BE THE SPEED OF THE MCS ACROSS THE AREA
AND DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD TEND TO INTENSIFY THE
CONVECTIVE LINE BY TOMORROW MID-MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANY
SURFACE HEATING ACCOMPANIED BY THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE LINE EXITS INTO
GA.
17/KLAWS
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING, REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
NEAR DES MOINES, IA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO
A TRIPLE POINT NEAR WICHITA FALLS, TX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WON'T MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TODAY, BUT WILL
SURGE SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY TOMORROW MORNING.
RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IS QUIET RIGHT NOW, BUT THE GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY SATURATED COLUMN
AND LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS SHOULD SHIFT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
1000-2000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AS WELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODEST, AROUND 25-30
KTS, BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING AS THE EML MOVES
IN. THIS SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE STRONG, AND A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY EVOLVE AS WELL. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FORMAL MESSAGING AHEAD OF THE HIGHER SEVERE THREAT LATE
TONIGHT, AS THE RAIN THIS MORNING COULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION,
WITH THE FORCING PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
FROM THE WEST, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML SHOULD PUT AN END TO
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. TONIGHT, BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BE LOCATED OFF TO OUR WNW, WITH A SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CAUSING SOME AMPLIFICATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE 40-45KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR PROBABLY WON'T BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY CELLULAR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MID TO UPPER
60S DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG, ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A JET
STREAK. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AS THE CONVECTION
MOVES IN, SO IT MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY SURFACE-BASED. THE MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DCAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR QLCS TORNADOES
AND HAIL AS WELL. SOME CAMS INDICATE A SECOND MCS COMING IN FROM
THE WEST MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE, MERGING IN WITH THE
MCS COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HAVE ONE LONG LINEAR
MCS. THE ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA, BUT WILL NOTE THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT, NOT AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT. WE HAVE
OPTED TO FILL IN MOST OF THE "GAP" IN THE I-59 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
THE DAY 1 AND DAY 2 ENHANCED RISKS, BUT WILL LEAVE SOME OF THE FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS.
ONCE THE COLD POOL GETS GOING, THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
CAUSE THE MCS(S) TO HAVE SOME MOMENTUM, AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO
EXIT THE CWA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY ON MONDAY, THOUGH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
32/JDAVIS
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WE OPEN UP THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING
OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH. AFTER
A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, OUR EARLY WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
TO FUNNEL BACK ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS STILL A BIT UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
RAINFALL WE WILL SEE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF US AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THAT SAID, IF THE
RIDGE COMES IN BIT WEAKER AND FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION,
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW, WILL CARRY LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES, GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA, THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE SURGE LOOKS
TO FINALLY MOVE THE STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE NEAR RECORD SETTING
HIGH TEMPS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR A FEW SITES TO
REACH 90 DEGREES.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WASN'T TOO CONFIDENT IN THE
COVERAGE TO THUNDER TO PREVAIL TS/TSRA AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL
AT THIS TIME. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR CEILINGS SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. MIN RH VALUES
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-70% RANGE. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT,
LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE 35-50% RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE WE ARE CARRYING LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK IN THE
FORECAST, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 77 59 74 41 / 60 60 90 0
ANNISTON 76 61 75 44 / 70 40 90 10
BIRMINGHAM 77 63 74 46 / 60 60 90 10
TUSCALOOSA 79 63 77 46 / 60 60 90 10
CALERA 76 63 75 48 / 70 50 90 10
AUBURN 76 65 73 51 / 70 20 90 10
MONTGOMERY 79 65 76 52 / 70 20 90 10
TROY 79 64 77 53 / 70 10 90 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17/KLAWS
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...95
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