933
FXUS64 KBMX 301855
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- A FAST-MOVING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RISK LEVEL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IS A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL THREATS WILL INCLUDE QLCS TORNADOES AND
HAIL.
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
RECORD TERRITORY WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CURRENTLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. AT FIRST THOUGHT, SOME OF
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ALOFT AS THE EML WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER,
THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL NOW THAT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
ANVIL CONTAMINATION HAS BEEN UNRELENTING THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS MAY BREAKOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SO AT
BEST, POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO COLD POOL OVER MS AND
TN AND MERGE INTO AN MCS OR PERHAPS SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS
DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. TIMING
HAS SPED UP JUST A BIT, WHICH WOULD BE TYPICAL IN THIS SETUP. I
STILL HAVE SOME HESITATIONS ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT OVER MOST OF
WEST ALABAMA AS A DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH BACKING
WIND PROFILES BETWEEN 2 TO 3KM. THIS WOULD ACT TO EITHER SUPPRESS
ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AND/OR BECOME A HINDRANCE TO UPDRAFT
STRENGTH. THAT BEING SAID, THE PURE MECHANICAL FORCING OF A STRONG
COLD POOL WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT.
THE FINAL CONCERN WOULD BE THE SPEED OF THE MCS ACROSS THE AREA
AND DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD TEND TO INTENSIFY THE
CONVECTIVE LINE BY TOMORROW MID-MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANY
SURFACE HEATING ACCOMPANIED BY THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE LINE EXITS INTO
GA.
17/KLAWS
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BROAD RIDGING CENTERED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. IN BETWEEN, A STALLED FRONT AND A
STRONG 500 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET AXIS WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST. STARTING WEDNESDAY,
EACH SUCCESSIVE NUDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AXIS SHOULD BRING IT
CLOSER TO OUR AREA, TRYING TO OVERCOME THE RESISTIVE FORCE OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTHWEST
OF THE 59/20 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THOUGH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NORTHWEST OF
THE 59/20 MAY INCREASE A BIT. MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHWEST
PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE WILL ERODE ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW
FOR A CLOSER PASS BY ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING FROM
THE LAGER-SCALE TROUGH. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY FAVOR SUNDAY BEING THE
MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF A WIDER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SHEAR AND DIURNAL CYCLES IN INSTABILITY, WE'RE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PROXIMITY OF ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST
DURING THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERE STORMS WON'T BE TOO FAR AWAY.
A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FROM
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PUTS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
(DAILY) HIGHS FROM WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD HIGHS. ADDITIONALLY, A WINDY WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED AS THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT ALL SITES, ALTHOUGH A SLOW
CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE IS ANTICIPATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ALL SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE WEST, NORTHWEST AND LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LINE MOVES
INTO WESTERN GA.
17/KLAWS
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO INCHES ARE PROBABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN-FREE WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT 20-FOOT WINDS ARE FORECAST ON
TUESDAY, BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BREEZY AND GUSTY DAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. MINIMUM RHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY,
APRIL 2ND TO SATURDAY, APRIL 5TH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
APRIL 2 APRIL 3 APRIL 4 APRIL 5
ANNISTON 87 89 86 88
BIRMINGHAM 86 87 88 88
TUSCALOOSA 88 86 87 89
MONTGOMERY 88 87 89 91
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 74 43 76 / 60 90 0 0
ANNISTON 61 75 46 78 / 40 90 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 63 74 48 77 / 60 90 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 63 77 48 80 / 60 90 0 10
CALERA 63 75 49 78 / 50 90 0 10
AUBURN 65 73 54 78 / 20 90 10 10
MONTGOMERY 65 76 54 80 / 20 90 10 10
TROY 64 77 56 81 / 10 90 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...17
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