786
FXUS64 KBMX 310003
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- A FAST-MOVING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RISK LEVEL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IS A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL THREATS WILL INCLUDE QLCS TORNADOES AND
HAIL.
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
RECORD TERRITORY WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE STABLE CAPPING IS BEGINNING TO SET UP OVER THE AREA, PUTTING A
SQUASH ON MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 4 TO 7
HOURS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON THE SEVERE TIMING
WITH A SLOWER START BUT THEN INCREASING SPEED AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOW
REALLY HITTING AT THE ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL STILL NEED TO ADJUST THE THUNDER PROBABILITIES.
THIS WILL BE UPDATED SOON. IF WE TRULY SEE THE MCS MOVE THROUGH IN
ONE SWOOP, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN GENERALLY JUST SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AS THE FRONT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT OF THE
CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THAT DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND 3 AM AND PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER
SUNRISE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT SCENARIO, SO INCLUDED IN THE
GHWO BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY OTHER PRODUCTS DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL
SITUATION.
16
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CURRENTLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. AT FIRST THOUGHT, SOME OF
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ALOFT AS THE EML WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER,
THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL NOW THAT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
ANVIL CONTAMINATION HAS BEEN UNRELENTING THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS MAY BREAKOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SO AT
BEST, POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT, UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO COLD POOL OVER MS AND
TN AND MERGE INTO AN MCS OR PERHAPS SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS
DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. TIMING
HAS SPED UP JUST A BIT, WHICH WOULD BE TYPICAL IN THIS SETUP. I
STILL HAVE SOME HESITATIONS ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT OVER MOST OF
WEST ALABAMA AS A DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH BACKING
WIND PROFILES BETWEEN 2 TO 3KM. THIS WOULD ACT TO EITHER SUPPRESS
ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AND/OR BECOME A HINDRANCE TO UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
THAT BEING SAID, THE PURE MECHANICAL FORCING OF A STRONG COLD
POOL WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT.
THE FINAL CONCERN WOULD BE THE SPEED OF THE MCS ACROSS THE AREA
AND DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD TEND TO INTENSIFY THE
CONVECTIVE LINE BY TOMORROW MID-MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANY
SURFACE HEATING ACCOMPANIED BY THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE LINE EXITS INTO
GA.
17/KLAWS
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BROAD RIDGING CENTERED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. IN BETWEEN, A STALLED FRONT AND A
STRONG 500 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET AXIS WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST. STARTING WEDNESDAY,
EACH SUCCESSIVE NUDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AXIS SHOULD BRING IT
CLOSER TO OUR AREA, TRYING TO OVERCOME THE RESISTIVE FORCE OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTHWEST
OF THE 59/20 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THOUGH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NORTHWEST OF
THE 59/20 MAY INCREASE A BIT. MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHWEST
PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE WILL ERODE ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW
FOR A CLOSER PASS BY ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING FROM
THE LAGER-SCALE TROUGH. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY FAVOR SUNDAY BEING THE
MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF A WIDER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SHEAR AND DIURNAL CYCLES IN INSTABILITY, WE'RE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PROXIMITY OF ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST
DURING THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERE STORMS WON'T BE TOO FAR AWAY.
A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FROM
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PUTS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
(DAILY) HIGHS FROM WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD HIGHS. ADDITIONALLY, A WINDY WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED AS THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
GENERALLY VFR SKIES AS THE RAIN HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED FOR A
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IN FACT THE SHOWERS NEAR MGM HAVE
ERODED SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY VCSH AT THIS TIME THROUGH 5Z. MVFR
SKIES WILL RETURN AT THAT TIME FROM WEST TO EAST AT THAT TIME AS
WELL. STARTED WITH TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND INCLUSION OF TEMPO OF
STORMS AT TCL AT 10Z AND BHM AT 12Z. HELD OFF AT MGM UNTIL 15Z.
THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 19 TO 20Z
AT TCL AND THEN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THAT FOR EACH NORTHERN SITE.
MGM LOOKS TO IMPACTED RIGHT AT 23 TO 00Z, SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT
THIS UPDATE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A LINE OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES ARE PROBABLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN-FREE
WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT 20-FOOT WINDS ARE FORECAST ON
TUESDAY, BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BREEZY AND GUSTY DAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. MINIMUM RHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY,
APRIL 2ND TO SATURDAY, APRIL 5TH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
APRIL 2 APRIL 3 APRIL 4 APRIL 5
ANNISTON 87 89 86 88
BIRMINGHAM 86 87 88 88
TUSCALOOSA 88 86 87 89
MONTGOMERY 88 87 89 91
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 74 43 76 / 80 90 0 0
ANNISTON 61 75 46 78 / 80 90 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 63 74 48 77 / 60 90 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 63 77 48 80 / 60 90 0 10
CALERA 63 75 49 78 / 70 100 0 10
AUBURN 65 73 54 78 / 40 100 10 10
MONTGOMERY 65 76 54 80 / 50 90 10 10
TROY 64 77 56 81 / 20 100 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...16
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