340
FXUS64 KBMX 310746
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- A FAST-MOVING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK LEVEL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL THREATS WILL INCLUDE QLCS TORNADOES AND
HAIL.
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
RECORD TERRITORY WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
AS OF WRITING, A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TN BACK TO PORTION OF ARKANSAS AND
MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 5 AM AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE STATE LINE TO OUR WEST. NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL AL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE OUR OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, OUR THREAT WILL
LIKELY TURN TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
ANY BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
CLEAR OF THE REGION BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, WE COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE
IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN THE AREA, TRAPPING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. WE LOOK TO STAY DRY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKE CONTROL.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE. THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
HEAD OUR WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS BUT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL TO OUR
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, A 30-40 KNOT LLJ WILL USHER PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE LATEST
ROUND OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
OUR NORTHWEST WHERE THE GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE CO-LOCATED. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION TO LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RIDGE AXIS POTENTIALLY COMING IN WEAKER
THAN ADVERTISED. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, ANY STORMS THAT DO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY TO
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY RECEIVED THE
NUDGE IT NEEDED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY.
A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS SET TO KICK OFF DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND RECORDING BREAKING TEMPS. MORE ON THAT
BELOW. LASTLY, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT BREEZY AS AT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY AT TIMES.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. FOG HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT MGM LEADING TO PERIODIC IFR/LIFR VIS. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING. TEMPO GROUP TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CAMS AND OVERALL TRENDS. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SOME VCSH LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE
RECEIVE AND HOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO INCHES ARE PROBABLE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY, LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE
35-45% RANGE ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER A BIT BY MID WEEK
WITH MIN RHS BACK AROUND 50%. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY GUST AROUND 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE RAIN-FREE TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY,
APRIL 2ND TO SATURDAY, APRIL 5TH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
APRIL 2 APRIL 3 APRIL 4 APRIL 5
ANNISTON 87 89 86 88
BIRMINGHAM 86 87 88 88
TUSCALOOSA 88 86 87 89
MONTGOMERY 88 87 89 91
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 75 41 75 56 / 90 10 0 10
ANNISTON 73 44 78 60 / 100 10 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 75 46 77 63 / 90 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 75 46 79 64 / 90 0 0 10
CALERA 74 48 78 63 / 100 10 0 10
AUBURN 72 52 79 64 / 90 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 77 51 81 64 / 100 10 10 0
TROY 78 55 81 63 / 90 20 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM....95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95
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