723
FXUS64 KBMX 311623
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1123 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
RECORD TERRITORY WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE LINE OF GUSTY BUT SUB-SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO GEORGIA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR, MARKING THE END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ALTHOUGH STORMS WERE NOISY WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN,
AND SOME HAIL, THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SEEMINGLY DID NOT MOISTEN
UP IN TIME TO PROVIDE A MORE SUITABLE SURFACE-BASED ENVIRONMENT
FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FAST MOVING LINE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. IT'S LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO WARM INTO THE 70S, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD GET THERE ONCE THE
RAIN MOVES OUT.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MANY
AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. STRONG HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING AS A
RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE AREA THEN WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL DRIVE A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE. THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
HEAD OUR WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS BUT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL TO OUR
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, A 30-40 KNOT LLJ WILL USHER PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE LATEST
ROUND OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
OUR NORTHWEST WHERE THE GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE CO-LOCATED. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION TO LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RIDGE AXIS POTENTIALLY COMING IN WEAKER
THAN ADVERTISED. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, ANY STORMS THAT DO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY TO
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY RECEIVED THE
NUDGE IT NEEDED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY.
A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS SET TO KICK OFF DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND RECORDING BREAKING TEMPS. MORE ON THAT
BELOW. LASTLY, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT BREEZY AS AT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY AT TIMES.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE.
THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
THIS MORNING WITH SOME VCSH LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE
RECEIVE AND HOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED A MENTION
OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANB/ASN AS THE
HREF PROBS WERE NOT AS HIGH.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO INCHES ARE PROBABLE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY, LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE
35-45% RANGE ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER A BIT BY MID WEEK
WITH MIN RHS BACK AROUND 50%. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY GUST AROUND 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE RAIN-FREE TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY,
APRIL 2ND TO SATURDAY, APRIL 5TH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
APRIL 2 APRIL 3 APRIL 4 APRIL 5
ANNISTON 87 89 86 88
BIRMINGHAM 86 87 88 88
TUSCALOOSA 88 86 87 89
MONTGOMERY 88 87 89 91
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 41 76 56 / 90 0 0 10
ANNISTON 71 43 79 60 / 100 10 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 70 45 77 63 / 90 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 73 46 79 64 / 40 0 0 10
CALERA 71 47 79 63 / 90 10 0 10
AUBURN 70 50 79 64 / 100 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 73 50 81 64 / 100 20 0 0
TROY 73 53 82 63 / 100 20 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...95
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