453
FXUS64 KBMX 312335
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MANY
AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. STRONG HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING AS A
RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE AREA THEN WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL DRIVE A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL BEGIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ON THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A
VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHERLY 925MB JET OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AREAWIDE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE'LL BE
WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE VERTICALLY-STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC. SO FAR OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS, THE WIND FORECAST HAS VERIFIED WELL DURING GRADIENT WIND
SITUATIONS WHEN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF NBM GUIDANCE.
I'VE DECIDED TO DO JUST THAT ON TODAY'S UPDATE, WHICH WOULD GIVE
US SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THOSE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE, WE'LL NEED A WIND
ADVISORY DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE CLOSED LOW FAR TO THE NORTH WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT STALLS AND
THE 500MB JET REMAINS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS, WESTERN TENNESSEE,
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. IF ANY
STORMS HAPPEN TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH VERY
UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SHEAR, ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER, THIS REMAINS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT DUE TO THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT, WE MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN DEVELOP AT ALL, BUT WITH THE FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE IT
REMAINS PRUDENT TO KEEP A SEVERE RISK AREA IN PLACE FOR NOW. THIS
AFTERNOON'S SPC UPDATE BEGAN THE TREND OF TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
OF THE RISK AREAS, WITH A 2 OUT OF 5 RISK NOW ONLY COVERING LAMAR,
MARION, AND WINSTON COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM WILL FEATURE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO. WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM, ALL SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WE'LL STAY HOT AND DRY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
ADVERTISED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS NOW COMING INTO THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW. THE AREAS IN THE NORTH WILL BE
IMPACTED WITH MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE "COLD AIR" ADVECTION BEFORE THE
DRY AIR WORKS IN. MOST OF THE NORTH SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS LIFT AND
ERODE BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z. FOR MGM THERE WILL BE MVFR CLOUDS AS
WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF DROP INTO IFR. NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT WITH THIS SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 6 KTS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES IN
THE 35-45% RANGE ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER A BIT BY MID
WEEK WITH MIN RHS BACK AROUND 50%. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY GUST AROUND 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE RAIN-FREE TUESDAY WITH LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY,
APRIL 2ND TO SATURDAY, APRIL 5TH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
APRIL 2 APRIL 3 APRIL 4 APRIL 5
ANNISTON 87 89 86 88
BIRMINGHAM 86 87 88 88
TUSCALOOSA 88 86 87 89
MONTGOMERY 88 87 89 91
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 41 76 56 87 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 43 79 60 87 / 10 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 45 77 63 87 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 46 79 65 89 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 47 79 64 87 / 10 0 0 10
AUBURN 50 79 65 86 / 20 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 50 81 65 88 / 20 0 0 0
TROY 53 82 65 88 / 20 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...16
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