882
FXUS64 KBMX 010706
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
206 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS A FEW PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS HANGING ON IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PWAT OF 0.98". AS
OF WRITING, THE LATEST GOES TPW IMAGERY REVEALS PWATS DOWN TO
AROUND 0.50". THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE
FOREDNESDAY NIGHTSOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE,
GENERALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THIS DRIER AIR. TEMPS THIS
MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WE WILL
LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS SKIES CLEAR AND
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PERSISTS. THE SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST TODAY, ALLOWING FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. TEMPS TODAY WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD BREAKING
HIGH TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK. MORE ON THAT IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. LASTLY, LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD
OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AWAY FROM THE REGION, MOST WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL AL.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ON THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A
VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHERLY 925MB JET OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AREAWIDE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE'LL BE
WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE VERTICALLY-STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC. SO FAR OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS, THE WIND FORECAST HAS VERIFIED WELL DURING GRADIENT WIND
SITUATIONS WHEN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF NBM GUIDANCE.
I'VE DECIDED TO DO JUST THAT ON TODAY'S UPDATE, WHICH WOULD GIVE
US SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THOSE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE, WE'LL NEED A WIND
ADVISORY DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE CLOSED LOW FAR TO THE NORTH WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT STALLS AND
THE 500MB JET REMAINS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS, WESTERN TENNESSEE,
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. IF ANY
STORMS HAPPEN TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH VERY
UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SHEAR, ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER, THIS REMAINS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT DUE TO THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT, WE MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN DEVELOP AT ALL, BUT WITH THE FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE IT
REMAINS PRUDENT TO KEEP A SEVERE RISK AREA IN PLACE FOR NOW. THIS
AFTERNOON'S SPC UPDATE BEGAN THE TREND OF TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
OF THE RISK AREAS, WITH A 2 OUT OF 5 RISK NOW ONLY COVERING LAMAR,
MARION, AND WINSTON COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM WILL FEATURE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO. WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM, ALL SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WE'LL STAY HOT AND DRY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
ADVERTISED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A SWATH OF MVFR CEILINGS
STRETCHING ACROSS OUR WESTERN 3 TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. IT'S POSSIBLE WE CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN THAT IF YOU LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS, MGM COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES IN
THE 35-45% RANGE ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER A BIT BY MID
WEEK WITH MIN RHS BACK AROUND 50%. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY GUST AROUND 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE RAIN-FREE TUESDAY WITH LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY,
APRIL 2ND TO SATURDAY, APRIL 5TH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
APRIL 2 APRIL 3 APRIL 4 APRIL 5
ANNISTON 87 89 86 88
BIRMINGHAM 86 87 88 88
TUSCALOOSA 88 86 87 89
MONTGOMERY 88 87 89 91
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 75 55 85 64 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 77 60 86 65 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 76 63 86 67 / 0 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 78 64 88 67 / 0 0 10 10
CALERA 77 63 87 66 / 0 0 10 0
AUBURN 79 64 85 66 / 0 0 10 0
MONTGOMERY 81 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 82 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...95
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page