111
FXUS64 KBMX 010739
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
239 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 229 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
GOES NIGHTIME MICROPHYICS IMAGERY REVEALS A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS HANGING ON IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PWAT OF 0.98". AS OF
WRITING, THE LATEST GOES TPW IMAGERY REVEALS PWATS DOWN TO AROUND
0.50". THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE, GENERALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH
THIS DRIER AIR. TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES. WE WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION AS SKIES CLEAR AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PERSISTS. THE
SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST
TODAY, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. TEMPS TODAY WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD
BREAKING HIGH TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK. MORE ON THAT IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LASTLY, LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS MOISTURE
POOLS AHEAD OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AWAY FROM THE REGION, MOST WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL AL.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS, AND BULGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE PRIMARY STORM
TRACK TO ALABAMA'S WEST AND NORTH. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHEASTWARD,
AND KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA DRY UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE'S A
CHANCE SOME ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEASTWARD TO GET INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, BUT THAT
WILL BE MORE OF AN EXEMPTION.
GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN BY
SUNDAY, ALLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH IN HERE. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT SWITCH TO MUCH
COOLER (SOME MIGHT CALL IT COLDER) WEATHER TO START OUT NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A SWATH OF MVFR CEILINGS
STRETCHING ACROSS OUR WESTERN 3 TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. IT'S POSSIBLE WE CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN THAT IF YOU LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS, MGM COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WILL BE LOW (20 TO 30 PERCENT) IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LESS SO THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES ON SUNDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY,
APRIL 2ND TO SATURDAY, APRIL 5TH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
APRIL 2 APRIL 3 APRIL 4 APRIL 5
ANNISTON 87 89 86 88
BIRMINGHAM 86 87 88 88
TUSCALOOSA 88 86 87 89
MONTGOMERY 88 87 89 91
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 75 55 85 64 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 77 60 86 65 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 76 63 86 67 / 0 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 78 64 88 67 / 0 0 10 10
CALERA 77 63 87 66 / 0 0 10 0
AUBURN 79 64 85 66 / 0 0 10 0
MONTGOMERY 81 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 82 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...95
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