258
FXUS64 KBMX 011653
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS A FEW PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS HANGING ON IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PWAT OF 0.98". AS
OF WRITING, THE LATEST GOES TPW IMAGERY REVEALS PWATS DOWN TO
AROUND 0.50". THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE, GENERALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THIS DRIER AIR. TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WE WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION AS SKIES CLEAR AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
PERSISTS. THE SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
SCOOT EAST TODAY, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. TEMPS
TODAY WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. WE WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK.
MORE ON THAT IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LASTLY, LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AWAY FROM THE REGION, MOST WILL
REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL AL.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS, AND BULGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE PRIMARY STORM
TRACK TO ALABAMA'S WEST AND NORTH. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHEASTWARD,
AND KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA DRY UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE'S A
CHANCE SOME ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEASTWARD TO GET INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, BUT THAT
WILL BE MORE OF AN EXEMPTION.
GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN BY
SUNDAY, ALLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH IN HERE. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT SWITCH TO MUCH
COOLER (SOME MIGHT CALL IT COLDER) WEATHER TO START OUT NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 4-8 KTS. LOWER CLOUDS
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO MGM EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 12-24 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
05
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WILL BE LOW (20 TO 30 PERCENT) IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LESS SO THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES ON SUNDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY,
APRIL 2ND TO SATURDAY, APRIL 5TH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
APRIL 2 APRIL 3 APRIL 4 APRIL 5
ANNISTON 87 89 86 88
BIRMINGHAM 86 87 88 88
TUSCALOOSA 88 86 87 89
MONTGOMERY 88 87 89 91
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 77 57 87 65 / 0 10 10 0
ANNISTON 79 59 86 67 / 0 10 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 78 63 87 68 / 0 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 80 64 88 69 / 0 10 10 10
CALERA 79 62 86 68 / 0 10 10 0
AUBURN 79 63 84 67 / 0 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 83 64 87 67 / 0 10 10 0
TROY 83 64 87 67 / 0 10 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05
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