413
FXUS64 KBMX 011841 AAE
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
141 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
- THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. IF
ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP, THEY MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THIS AFTERNOON.
LONGWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION NORTHWEST TO OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR HOUSTON, TX AND STRETCHED FURTHER EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S FAR
NORTHWEST TO READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT.
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, CARVING
OUT A DEEPER PORTION OF THE BROAD WESTERN TROUGH WHILE THE
LONGWAVE RIDGING AMPLIFIES FURTHER IN RESPONSE AS IT EXTENDS FROM
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FURTHER AND
CONSOLIDATE WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT,
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE THE COASTAL FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TO BECOME STATIONARY
THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM EAST OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH OF
THE COASTAL WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 3-6 MPH.
WEDNESDAY.
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A BROAD WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS FROM THE EASTERN
SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW
(10-20%) CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A DRY FORECAST IS LIKELY, IF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
LIKELY RESULT, BUT THIS VERY CONDITIONAL RISK APPEARS TO BE QUITE
LOW AND NOT MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS
TIME. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
THE MID 80S FAR NORTH AND FAR EAST TO THE UPPER 80S FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH SPEEDS FROM 15-25 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
05
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS, AND BULGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE PRIMARY STORM
TRACK TO ALABAMA'S WEST AND NORTH. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHEASTWARD,
AND KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA DRY UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE'S A
CHANCE SOME ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEASTWARD TO GET INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, BUT THAT
WILL BE MORE OF AN EXEMPTION.
GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN BY
SUNDAY, ALLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH IN HERE. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT SWITCH TO MUCH
COOLER (SOME MIGHT CALL IT COLDER) WEATHER TO START OUT NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 4-8 KTS. LOWER CLOUDS
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO MGM EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 12-24 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
05
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WILL BE LOW (20 TO 30 PERCENT) IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LESS SO THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES ON SUNDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY,
APRIL 2ND TO SATURDAY, APRIL 5TH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
APRIL 2 APRIL 3 APRIL 4 APRIL 5
ANNISTON 87 89 86 88
BIRMINGHAM 86 87 88 88
TUSCALOOSA 88 86 87 89
MONTGOMERY 88 87 89 91
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 87 65 88 / 10 10 0 10
ANNISTON 59 86 67 88 / 10 10 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 63 87 68 88 / 10 10 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 64 88 69 88 / 10 10 10 10
CALERA 62 86 68 88 / 10 10 0 10
AUBURN 63 84 67 87 / 10 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 64 87 67 88 / 10 10 0 10
TROY 64 87 67 88 / 10 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05
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