851
FXUS64 KBMX 021837
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
137 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- THERE IS A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A LEVEL 1
TO 2 OUR OF 5 RISK EXISTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY, WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITIES ARE
OVER 3000 J/KG IN THE WEST, WITH LI AROUND -8. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND A WEAK CAP ON THE SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS TO
HAVE HIGH CORES, STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, NEAR CONSTANT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SLOWER MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES IN A FEW AREAS. OTHERWISE, DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 0-1 SHEAR IS WEAK, AND THE REST OF
THE WIND PROFILE DOESN'T SUPPORT ENOUGH DEEPER SHEAR FOR TORNADOES,
SO WILL LEAVE OFF THE THREAT LIST FOR NOW. LATER THIS EVENING,
THE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, AND
STORM MOTION SHOULD INCREASE, THOUGH TRAINING IS STILL LIKELY AS
THE WIND PROFILE STAYS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
TONIGHT, THE INSTABILITIES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH FORCING FROM A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE,
COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. THOUGH THESE SHOULD
BE SUB SEVERE, THERE COULD BE STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL.
SATURDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRAPE
OVER THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN ATROCIOUS AT
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL ADVERTISE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. INSTABILITIES WON'T BE QUITE AS HIGH
AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG, THOUGH WITH A
STRONGER MID LEVEL JET, THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THERE COULD VERY LIKELY BE
BREAKS BETWEEN STORMS, BUT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING ANY BOUNDARIES
WITH ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TO ALLOW A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN
THOSE BREAKS WOULD BE. IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THE INSTABILITIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH WE WILL ASSESS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.
24
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AFTER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER ON SATURDAY, ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF THE 20
BEFORE FULLY VACATING CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS WE ENTER A POST-
FRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE DRY SLOT OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. TAME WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BATCHES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT OUR AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, IN
PART FROM SHORTWAVES COMING OFF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE. HAVE LEFT IN PROB30 AND VCSH
UNTIL A BETTER TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES (OR LOWER) WITH HIGH PW VALUES ALLOWING
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES. LIGHTNING WILL BE FREQUENT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
24
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MIN RHS AROUND
40-60% TODAY AND 60-70% ON SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE 35-45% RANGE AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 71 51 72 / 80 90 50 0
ANNISTON 61 72 54 73 / 70 90 60 0
BIRMINGHAM 63 71 54 72 / 80 90 40 0
TUSCALOOSA 63 72 53 74 / 80 90 30 0
CALERA 63 71 55 73 / 80 90 50 0
AUBURN 63 72 59 75 / 20 90 90 0
MONTGOMERY 64 75 58 76 / 40 90 70 0
TROY 63 74 58 77 / 20 90 90 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...24
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