785
FXUS64 KBMX 030513
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1213 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND THE TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD POOLING BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
11 PM, WITH RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH 1 TO 3 AM. THE
OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
16
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
TONIGHT, THE INSTABILITIES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH FORCING FROM A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE,
COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. THOUGH THESE SHOULD
BE SUB SEVERE, THERE COULD BE STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL.
SATURDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRAPE
OVER THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN ATROCIOUS AT
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL ADVERTISE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. INSTABILITIES WON'T BE QUITE AS HIGH
AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG, THOUGH WITH A
STRONGER MID LEVEL JET, THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THERE COULD VERY LIKELY BE
BREAKS BETWEEN STORMS, BUT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING ANY BOUNDARIES
WITH ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TO ALLOW A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN
THOSE BREAKS WOULD BE. IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THE INSTABILITIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH WE WILL ASSESS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.
24
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AFTER THE ACTIVITY WORKS OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER
LOW WILL SWING TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW CLOUDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY, BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW CHANCES REMAIN LOW OF
GETTING AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH SO WILL GO WITH A CLOUDY
BUT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AS SOME OF THE CAMS COME IN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WE COULD SEE THE TREND INCREASE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY AFFECT OUR AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH SHORTWAVES COMING
OFF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS BECOMING MOSTLY SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE PREVAILED VFR CONDITIONS AND -RA AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR MGM THROUGH THE NIGHT. MGM MAY NOT SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
AROUND 12Z AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN STORE TODAY. HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
TEMPOS AT ALL TERMINALS TO NARROW IN ON THE TIMING FOR TSRA.
CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MIN RHS AROUND
40-60% TODAY AND 60-70% ON SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE 35-45% RANGE AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 50 72 46 / 90 30 10 0
ANNISTON 72 52 73 48 / 90 40 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 71 52 71 49 / 90 20 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 72 52 74 49 / 90 10 0 0
CALERA 71 54 73 50 / 90 30 0 0
AUBURN 72 57 75 52 / 90 70 0 0
MONTGOMERY 75 56 75 52 / 90 40 0 0
TROY 74 57 76 51 / 90 60 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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