224  
FXUS64 KBMX 030705  
AFDBMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
205 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 157 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025  
 
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF  
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY  
THIS MORNING. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE ARE SEEING MOSTLY SHOWERS  
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONE LONE STORM STILL TRYING TO HOLD  
ON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES  
FAR ENOUGH EAST AND/OR FIZZLES OUT, WE WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN  
COVERAGE UNTIL MIDDAY.  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE  
PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST DURING THE DAY, AN  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD OUR WAY. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL  
BE THE TRIGGER FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPES AROUND 1500  
J/KG. HOWEVER, 0-6KM WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50 KNOTS AS THE  
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. IT'S POSSIBLE WE SEE OUR  
INSTABILITIES CLIMB A BIT MORE DEPENDING ON ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD  
COVER. IF THAT'S THE CASE, WE COULD SEE OUR SEVERE RISK INCREASE  
TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL  
RISK FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN  
THREATS LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A FAIRLY  
SATURATED PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, NOT EXPECTING TOO  
MUCH OF A FLOODING THREAT TODAY AS THE STORMS SHOULD BE  
PROGRESSING PRETTY QUICK. WITH THAT SAID, A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS  
OUR SOUTHWEST SAW UP TO 5" YESTERDAY SO IF THE LINE TRAINS OVER  
THAT SAME AREA WE COULD SEE A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK DEVELOP.  
 
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS  
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE  
IS HINTING AS SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME.  
 
LASTLY, TO TOUCH ON TEMPS, A COUPLE COOLER DAYS ARE IN STORE OVER  
THE WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY  
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE  
TONIGHT WHEN LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. OUR NORTHERN  
COUNTIES MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ON SUNDAY.  
 
95/CASTILLO  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025  
 
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY A QUITE BLOCKY OR LOOPY  
PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AFFECTING THE  
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING  
OUT ON MONDAY, AND A BRISK NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS BECOME  
UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AND APPEAR TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH  
THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL  
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN THE NEXT SWATH OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY, AS A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF ONE OF THOSE UPPER LOWS.  
BEYOND THAT, DEWPOINTS START TO CREEP UP ONCE AGAIN, AND THE  
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WILL LEAD TO LARGELY DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE 7 DAY  
PERIOD. GENERAL TROUGHINESS FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN TO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.  
 
/61/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025  
 
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS BECOMING MOSTLY SHOWERS  
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE PREVAILED VFR CONDITIONS AND -RA AT ALL  
TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR MGM THROUGH THE NIGHT. MGM MAY NOT SEE MUCH  
ACTIVITY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER  
AROUND 12Z AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN STORE TODAY. HAVE TRANSITIONED TO  
TEMPOS AT ALL TERMINALS TO NARROW IN ON THE TIMING FOR TSRA.  
CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS  
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  
 
95/CASTILLO  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MIN  
RHS AROUND 60-70% TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA  
ON SUNDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE 35-45% RANGE AT TIMES.  
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
GADSDEN 72 47 70 45 / 90 20 10 0  
ANNISTON 71 51 70 47 / 90 20 0 0  
BIRMINGHAM 73 51 70 49 / 90 10 0 0  
TUSCALOOSA 74 51 72 50 / 90 10 0 0  
CALERA 73 51 71 50 / 90 10 0 0  
AUBURN 72 56 73 52 / 90 60 0 0  
MONTGOMERY 77 54 75 50 / 90 30 0 0  
TROY 77 55 75 50 / 90 50 0 0  
 
 
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO  
LONG TERM..../61/  
AVIATION...95  
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