637
FXUS64 KBMX 031109
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE ARE SEEING MOSTLY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONE LONE STORM STILL TRYING TO HOLD
ON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
FAR ENOUGH EAST AND/OR FIZZLES OUT, WE WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN
COVERAGE UNTIL MIDDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST DURING THE DAY, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD OUR WAY. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE TRIGGER FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG. HOWEVER, 0-6KM WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50 KNOTS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. IT'S POSSIBLE WE SEE OUR
INSTABILITIES CLIMB A BIT MORE DEPENDING ON ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER. IF THAT'S THE CASE, WE COULD SEE OUR SEVERE RISK INCREASE
TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN
THREATS LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A FAIRLY
SATURATED PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH OF A FLOODING THREAT TODAY AS THE STORMS SHOULD BE
PROGRESSING PRETTY QUICK. WITH THAT SAID, A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWEST SAW UP TO 5" YESTERDAY SO IF THE LINE TRAINS OVER
THAT SAME AREA WE COULD SEE A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK DEVELOP.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AS SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME.
LASTLY, TO TOUCH ON TEMPS, A COUPLE COOLER DAYS ARE IN STORE OVER
THE WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE
TONIGHT WHEN LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY A QUITE BLOCKY OR LOOPY
PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AFFECTING THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING
OUT ON MONDAY, AND A BRISK NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS BECOME
UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AND APPEAR TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN THE NEXT SWATH OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF ONE OF THOSE UPPER LOWS.
BEYOND THAT, DEWPOINTS START TO CREEP UP ONCE AGAIN, AND THE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WILL LEAD TO LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE 7 DAY
PERIOD. GENERAL TROUGHINESS FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
/61/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAINTAINED THE TEMPO
GROUPS TO CAPTURE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THE TSRA. CONVECTION
WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
MGM BY 09Z SUNDAY MORNING.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MIN
RHS AROUND 60-70% TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE 35-45% RANGE AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 47 70 45 / 90 20 10 0
ANNISTON 71 51 70 47 / 90 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 73 51 70 49 / 90 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 74 51 72 50 / 90 10 0 0
CALERA 73 51 71 50 / 90 10 0 0
AUBURN 72 56 73 52 / 90 60 0 0
MONTGOMERY 77 54 75 50 / 90 30 0 0
TROY 77 55 75 50 / 90 50 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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