706
FXUS64 KBMX 031710
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE POTENTIAL
AFTER AN INTENSE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE PERIOD, MOST OF
THE AREA HAS STABILIZED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO
MENTIONABLE THAT ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING
OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA, KEEPING THE STABLE AIR FIRMLY IN
PLACE. THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AFTEROON'S
SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, I HAVE BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONVECTIVE GROUPING WILL
BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ENTERING INTO SAID STABLE AIRMASS OVER ALABAMA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME MINIMAL CLEARING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST, SO IT
WOULDN'T TAKE A LOT OF HEATING FOR THE AREA TO MARGINALLY RECOVER.
I ALSO HAVE SOME PAUSE BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ACT TO
ORGANIZE THE STORMS FURTHER. BOTTOM LINE IS TO KEEP AT LEAST ONE
EYE ON THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS STILL QUITE
POSSIBLE BASED UPON ANY SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN BE ACHIEVED.
17/KLAWS
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY A QUITE BLOCKY OR LOOPY
PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AFFECTING THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING
OUT ON MONDAY, AND A BRISK NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS BECOME
UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AND APPEAR TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN THE NEXT SWATH OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF ONE OF THOSE UPPER LOWS.
BEYOND THAT, DEWPOINTS START TO CREEP UP ONCE AGAIN, AND THE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WILL LEAD TO LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE 7 DAY
PERIOD. GENERAL TROUGHINESS FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
/61/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAINTAINED THE TEMPO
GROUPS TO CAPTURE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THE TSRA. CONVECTION
WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
MGM BY 09Z SUNDAY MORNING.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MIN
RHS AROUND 60-70% TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE 35-45% RANGE AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 47 69 44 / 90 20 10 10
ANNISTON 72 50 71 46 / 100 30 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 72 50 69 48 / 100 20 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 73 50 73 49 / 100 10 10 0
CALERA 72 51 71 50 / 100 20 10 0
AUBURN 72 55 73 51 / 100 80 0 0
MONTGOMERY 76 53 75 50 / 100 40 0 0
TROY 76 55 76 50 / 90 70 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17/KLAWS
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95
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