548
FXUS64 KBMX 031758
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1258 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE POTENTIAL
AFTER AN INTENSE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE PERIOD, MOST OF
THE AREA HAS STABILIZED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO
MENTIONABLE THAT ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING
OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA, KEEPING THE STABLE AIR FIRMLY IN
PLACE. THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AFTEROON'S
SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, I HAVE BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONVECTIVE GROUPING WILL
BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ENTERING INTO SAID STABLE AIRMASS OVER ALABAMA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME MINIMAL CLEARING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST, SO IT
WOULDN'T TAKE A LOT OF HEATING FOR THE AREA TO MARGINALLY RECOVER.
I ALSO HAVE SOME PAUSE BECAUSE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ACT TO
ORGANIZE THE STORMS FURTHER. BOTTOM LINE IS TO KEEP AT LEAST ONE
EYE ON THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS STILL QUITE
POSSIBLE BASED UPON ANY SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN BE ACHIEVED.
17/KLAWS
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND COLD FRONT, THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING
SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. CURRENTLY THIS LOW IS IS IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD. AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST,
THEN EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME
LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
UNDER DOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE CAMS. STILL
ONLY LOOKING AT SOME PASSING LIGHT RAIN, BUT CERTAINLY CAN MEASURE
A HUNDREDTH IN A FEW LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY AVAILABLE BEFORE INCREASING THOSE
CHANCES. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
16
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
NO BIG AREAS OR TARGETS OF CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED AS NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PROBABILISTIC SOLUTIONS.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND A BRISK NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS BECOME
UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN THE NEXT SWATH OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF ONE OF AN
UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT, THE
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OF THE AREA AND WE GET INTO MORE OF A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AIRMASS. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY AS WE TRANSITION FROM AN
OMEGA BLOCK TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA. SO OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING.
MAINTAINED THE TEMPO GROUPS TO CAPTURE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME
FOR THE TSRA. CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THERE IS A MODERATE
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR MGM BY 09Z SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE
POCKETS OF FOG AS WELL AT ANB/ASN AND EET BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
THERE.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO
THE 35-45% RANGE AT TIMES. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 47 69 44 72 / 20 10 10 0
ANNISTON 50 71 46 74 / 30 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 50 69 48 73 / 20 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 50 73 49 76 / 10 10 0 0
CALERA 51 71 50 75 / 20 10 0 0
AUBURN 55 73 51 75 / 80 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 75 50 77 / 40 0 0 0
TROY 55 76 50 77 / 70 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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