520
FXUS64 KBMX 032328
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH 9 TO 10 PM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PASS THROUGH THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT OF THE DAY, WHILE THE JET MAX PASSES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND COLD FRONT, THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING
SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. CURRENTLY THIS LOW IS IS IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD. AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST,
THEN EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME
LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
UNDER DOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE CAMS. STILL
ONLY LOOKING AT SOME PASSING LIGHT RAIN, BUT CERTAINLY CAN MEASURE
A HUNDREDTH IN A FEW LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY AVAILABLE BEFORE INCREASING THOSE
CHANCES. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
16
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
NO BIG AREAS OR TARGETS OF CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED AS NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PROBABILISTIC SOLUTIONS.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND A BRISK NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS BECOME
UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN THE NEXT SWATH OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF ONE OF AN
UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT, THE
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OF THE AREA AND WE GET INTO MORE OF A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AIRMASS. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY AS WE TRANSITION FROM AN
OMEGA BLOCK TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA. SO OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH BHM/EET/ANB AND ASN AND WILL
PASSING THROUGH MGM AT 00Z. EXPECTED STORMS TO END AT ANB/ASN BY
00Z, WITH RAIN THROUGH 2Z. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THESE
SITES.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH MGM RIGHT
AT 00Z WITH STORMS ENDING BY 1Z AND SHOWERS BY 3 TO 4Z. CONTINUED
WITH TEMPO OF FOG AT ANB/ASN AND MGM RIGHT AT SUNRISE. WILL ALSO
MONITOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND THE SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER
IN THE NORTH AFTER 6Z AT BHM/EET AND 8Z AT ANB/ASN. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE RA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 15Z FROM THE W/NW BETWEEN 11 AND 15 KTS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO
THE 35-45% RANGE AT TIMES. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 69 44 72 / 30 10 10 0
ANNISTON 51 71 46 74 / 60 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 50 69 48 73 / 20 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 50 73 49 76 / 20 10 0 0
CALERA 52 71 50 75 / 30 10 0 0
AUBURN 55 73 51 75 / 90 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 54 75 50 77 / 90 0 0 0
TROY 55 76 50 77 / 90 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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