446
FXUS64 KBMX 040510
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1210 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH 9 TO 10 PM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PASS THROUGH THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT OF THE DAY, WHILE THE JET MAX PASSES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND COLD FRONT, THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING
SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. CURRENTLY THIS LOW IS IS IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD. AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST,
THEN EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME
LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
UNDER DOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE CAMS. STILL
ONLY LOOKING AT SOME PASSING LIGHT RAIN, BUT CERTAINLY CAN MEASURE
A HUNDREDTH IN A FEW LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY AVAILABLE BEFORE INCREASING THOSE
CHANCES. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
16
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
NO BIG AREAS OR TARGETS OF CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED AS NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PROBABILISTIC SOLUTIONS.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND A BRISK NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS BECOME
UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN THE NEXT SWATH OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF ONE OF AN
UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT, THE
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OF THE AREA AND WE GET INTO MORE OF A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AIRMASS. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY AS WE TRANSITION FROM AN
OMEGA BLOCK TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA. SO OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY SET IN AT ASN/ANB/TCL. BHM/EET
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VISIBILITIES MAY
DROP TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THROUGH 14Z. MGM MAY HOLD OFF
ANY RESTRICTIONS UNTIL RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE BUT WILL MONITOR
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ANY POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS. VFR RETURNS BY MID
MORNING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF WINDOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO
THE 35-45% RANGE AT TIMES. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 44 72 48 / 10 10 0 0
ANNISTON 71 46 74 50 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 69 48 73 52 / 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 73 49 76 53 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 71 50 75 53 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 73 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 75 50 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 76 50 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-MARION-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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