161
FXUS64 KBMX 041111
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A SWATH OF
DENSE FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE TO
THE RECENT RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 14Z FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS, IT WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED SOUTH. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS, WE
WILL BE TREATED TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS SETTLING INTO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS LOW CHANCE OF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TUGS A FEW STREAMS OF H5 VORTICITY THROUGH THE REGION.
WITHOUT MUCH LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT, MOST WILL STAY DRY. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEP US DRY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WORK WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN AND SHORT SPELL OF DRY WEATHER, CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL START TO RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ON
TUESDAY. IT WON'T BE AN ENTIRELY SUMMERLIKE REGIME, SINCE THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE MERIDIONAL AND BLOCKY (RATHER THAN THE
TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT RIDGE). BUT IT WILL FEATURE DAILY MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PEAK COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND KEEP TABS ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK TO DIAGNOSE ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. HARD TO PINPOINT AREA PARTICULAR AREAS RIGHT NOW, GIVEN
THAT EACH DAY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE RELATIVELY
NARROW. 70S EACH AFTERNOON THIS TIME OF YEAR? YES, PLEASE.
/61/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER,
WILL MAINTAIN THE TEMPOS FOR MVFR/IFR VIS BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. ONCE VFR TAKES CONTROL BY 14Z, IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THIS TAF WINDOW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS
NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE
35-45% RANGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH RHS DROPPING TO NEAR
35% AT TINES ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AL. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS
WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 45 71 47 / 10 10 0 0
ANNISTON 69 47 72 50 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 69 49 72 52 / 0 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 71 49 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 70 49 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 72 50 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 74 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 75 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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