429
FXUS64 KBMX 042329
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST TODAY...AS ALL
ELEMENTS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAN'T
RULE OUT A SPRITZ OR SPRINKLE IN SOME OF THE BETTER DEVELOPED MORE
VIGOROUS CU THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS WELL. WINDS WILL
CALM DOWN QUICKLY BY SUNSET WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING AS WELL. TEND
TO BELIEVE THAT FOG WON'T BE AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT, AS THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD MIXING TODAY AND THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY LAYER DOESN'T LOOK
QUITE AS MOIST TONIGHT. STILL...WON'T BE ABLE TO RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY RADIATION FOG ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS OF COLD AIR
DRAINING AND HIGHER MOISTURE, I.E., TYPICALLY FAVORED MEADOWS,
VALLEYS, AND BODIES OF WATER.
TOMORROW...AS THE LOW LOSES IT'S GRIP AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN, WE SHOULD SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND
NICE 3-6 DEGREE WARMUP AREA WIDE. GREAT DAY TO STRETCH YOUR
WEEKEND IF YOU HAVE THE OPTION!
JD/02
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A SWATH OF
DENSE FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE TO
THE RECENT RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 14Z FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS, IT WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED SOUTH. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS, WE
WILL BE TREATED TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS SETTLING INTO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS LOW CHANCE OF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TUGS A FEW STREAMS OF H5 VORTICITY THROUGH THE REGION.
WITHOUT MUCH LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT, MOST WILL STAY DRY. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEP US DRY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WORK WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
ASIDE FROM A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES,
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS UPDATE, POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT FROM THE CURRENT
NBM FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY END UP BEING
MOSTLY DRY, BUT FURTHER CONFIRMATION IS NEEDED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE RAIN CHANCES.
87/GRANTHAM
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN AND SHORT SPELL OF DRY WEATHER, CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL START TO RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ON
TUESDAY. IT WON'T BE AN ENTIRELY SUMMERLIKE REGIME, SINCE THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE MERIDIONAL AND BLOCKY (RATHER THAN THE
TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT RIDGE). BUT IT WILL FEATURE DAILY MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PEAK COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND KEEP TABS ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK TO DIAGNOSE ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. HARD TO PINPOINT AREA PARTICULAR AREAS RIGHT NOW, GIVEN
THAT EACH DAY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE RELATIVELY
NARROW. 70S EACH AFTERNOON THIS TIME OF YEAR? YES, PLEASE.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CALM WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE BUT WILL LIKELY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT TIMES. ANY FOG BURNS OFF AFTER
13/14Z AND THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE
35-45% RANGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 45 71 47 77 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 47 72 49 78 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 49 72 52 78 / 10 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 49 75 52 80 / 10 0 0 10
CALERA 49 74 52 78 / 10 0 0 10
AUBURN 50 74 54 79 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 49 76 52 80 / 10 0 0 10
TROY 49 77 52 80 / 10 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...16
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