447
FXUS64 KBMX 050147
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
847 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/4 OF ALABAMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE FAR NORTH. OTHERWISE, A COOL NIGHT
ON TAP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND WE
WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
BEGUN TO PICK UP ON MORE FOG TONIGHT, BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST VIS WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER THAT ARE MUCH WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING AIR
LATER TONIGHT. FOCUSED A LITTLE MORE ON THAT ASPECT WITH THIS
UPDATE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AS THE LOW SLIDES TO
OUR EAST A LITTLE BIT MORE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA, KEEPING THE AREA ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL (ROUGHLY 7 TO 10 DEGREES).
16
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
ASIDE FROM A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES,
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS UPDATE, POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT FROM THE CURRENT
NBM FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY END UP BEING
MOSTLY DRY, BUT FURTHER CONFIRMATION IS NEEDED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE RAIN CHANCES.
87/GRANTHAM
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN AND SHORT SPELL OF DRY WEATHER, CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL START TO RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ON
TUESDAY. IT WON'T BE AN ENTIRELY SUMMERLIKE REGIME, SINCE THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE MERIDIONAL AND BLOCKY (RATHER THAN THE
TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT RIDGE). BUT IT WILL FEATURE DAILY MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PEAK COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND KEEP TABS ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK TO DIAGNOSE ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. HARD TO PINPOINT AREA PARTICULAR AREAS RIGHT NOW, GIVEN
THAT EACH DAY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE RELATIVELY
NARROW. 70S EACH AFTERNOON THIS TIME OF YEAR? YES, PLEASE.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CALM WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE BUT WILL LIKELY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT TIMES. ANY FOG BURNS OFF AFTER
13/14Z AND THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE
35-45% RANGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 45 71 47 77 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 47 72 49 78 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 49 72 52 78 / 10 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 49 75 52 80 / 10 0 0 10
CALERA 49 74 52 78 / 10 0 0 10
AUBURN 50 74 54 79 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 49 76 52 80 / 10 0 0 10
TROY 49 77 52 80 / 10 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...16
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