839
FXUS64 KBMX 050506
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1206 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/4 OF ALABAMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE FAR NORTH. OTHERWISE, A COOL NIGHT
ON TAP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND WE
WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
BEGUN TO PICK UP ON MORE FOG TONIGHT, BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST VIS WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER THAT ARE MUCH WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING AIR
LATER TONIGHT. FOCUSED A LITTLE MORE ON THAT ASPECT WITH THIS
UPDATE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AS THE LOW SLIDES TO
OUR EAST A LITTLE BIT MORE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA, KEEPING THE AREA ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL (ROUGHLY 7 TO 10 DEGREES).
16
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
ASIDE FROM A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES,
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS UPDATE, POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT FROM THE CURRENT
NBM FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY END UP BEING
MOSTLY DRY, BUT FURTHER CONFIRMATION IS NEEDED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE RAIN CHANCES.
87/GRANTHAM
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN AND SHORT SPELL OF DRY WEATHER, CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL START TO RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ON
TUESDAY. IT WON'T BE AN ENTIRELY SUMMERLIKE REGIME, SINCE THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE MERIDIONAL AND BLOCKY (RATHER THAN THE
TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT RIDGE). BUT IT WILL FEATURE DAILY MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PEAK COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND KEEP TABS ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK TO DIAGNOSE ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. HARD TO PINPOINT AREA PARTICULAR AREAS RIGHT NOW, GIVEN
THAT EACH DAY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE RELATIVELY
NARROW. 70S EACH AFTERNOON THIS TIME OF YEAR? YES, PLEASE.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. HAVE
OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VIS LATER THIS MORNING FROM
09-13Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE
35-45% RANGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 47 77 55 / 0 0 0 50
ANNISTON 72 49 78 57 / 0 0 0 40
BIRMINGHAM 72 52 78 59 / 0 0 10 60
TUSCALOOSA 75 52 80 60 / 0 0 10 70
CALERA 74 52 78 59 / 0 0 10 60
AUBURN 74 54 79 60 / 0 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 76 52 80 61 / 0 0 10 40
TROY 77 52 80 60 / 0 0 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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