471
FXUS64 KBMX 050655
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
155 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
ONCE AGAIN, GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. HREF PROBS
ARE HINTING AT A 10-40% CHANCE OF VIS LESS THAN 1 MILE AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT DAY TO KICK OFF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL
ADD ON A FEW DEGREES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SCOOTS EAST AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN. WE INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES, ON TUESDAY AS A H5 VORT MAX EJECTS OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW CHURNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK PERIOD. DAILY MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST, WITH PEAK
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE
TIME PERIOD TO FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
FORECASTS OF INSTABILITY LEVELS DON'T APPEAR TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND,
SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS PRACTICALLY NIL. BUT GIVEN THE BLOCKY
NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, THERE COULD BE SOME TRAINING OF
CELLS THAT WOULD INCREASE THE FLOODING RISK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. HAVE
OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VIS LATER THIS MORNING FROM
09-13Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RHS FALLING
INTO THE 35-45% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MIN RHS
SETTLING INTO THE 50-70% RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 46 78 55 / 0 0 0 50
ANNISTON 71 49 77 57 / 0 0 0 40
BIRMINGHAM 71 52 78 58 / 0 0 0 60
TUSCALOOSA 74 52 78 59 / 0 0 10 70
CALERA 73 52 78 59 / 0 0 0 60
AUBURN 74 53 78 60 / 0 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 76 53 80 60 / 0 0 10 40
TROY 77 52 80 59 / 0 0 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...95
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