986
FXUS64 KBMX 051731
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS, WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT, THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILING FROM THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT INTO
THE STATE ON TUESDAY, WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
STATE, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER,
CLOSER TO NORMAL, THANKS TO THAT LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
24
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK PERIOD. DAILY MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST, WITH PEAK
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE
TIME PERIOD TO FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
FORECASTS OF INSTABILITY LEVELS DON'T APPEAR TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND,
SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS PRACTICALLY NIL. BUT GIVEN THE BLOCKY
NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, THERE COULD BE SOME TRAINING OF
CELLS THAT WOULD INCREASE THE FLOODING RISK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER EACH TAF SITE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT
KANB AND KASN. LEFT MENTION OUT OF EACH TAF FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE, AND WILL ADD WITH LATER FORECAST.
24
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RHS FALLING
INTO THE 35-45% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MIN RHS
SETTLING INTO THE 50-70% RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 47 78 55 71 / 0 0 50 70
ANNISTON 48 78 57 73 / 0 0 40 70
BIRMINGHAM 51 79 58 72 / 0 0 60 80
TUSCALOOSA 52 79 59 75 / 0 10 70 80
CALERA 51 79 59 73 / 0 0 60 80
AUBURN 52 79 60 73 / 0 0 30 60
MONTGOMERY 52 81 60 75 / 0 10 40 70
TROY 52 81 59 77 / 0 10 20 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...24
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